The entire Bitcoin bull market followed a well-known pattern. A halving, a rally, a hard top, and a painful crash. Something doesn’t feel right this time. Bitcoin continues to make new all-time highs, only to drop by 10% and remain in that range for several weeks. Then it goes up again, up a few hundred dollars, and repeats.
I’ve been trading and looking at charts while traveling recently, and this is the first cycle I’ve ever checked a chart and thought, “This feels different than the others.” It’s not bad, but it’s weird. Let’s find out why.
The strange rhythm of this cycle
Typically, when Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, momentum continues. You would expect some decent pumps, liquidations, and fireworks on social media. In fact, every pimple feels weaker. It’s like watching someone sprint through mud.
The pattern is consistent. Small new ATH, and fixes. Weeks or even months of sideways behavior. Retail gets bored, volatility fades, and then slowly rises again. It’s a slow-motion bull market.
So what’s going on here? Is Bitcoin mature or is someone pulling the strings behind the scenes?
Let’s explore some theories.
Paper Bitcoin: Invisible Supply
One of the most popular ideas is the rise of “paper Bitcoin.” The term refers to synthetic exposure, i.e. ETFs, futures contracts, and custodial products that provide investors with Bitcoin exposure without the need for real coins on-chain.
With BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and a list of other ETFs trading daily, the question is whether all stocks truly represent a single Bitcoin in cold storage. Some analysts believe these products create “IOU Bitcoins” where investors think they own BTC but actually hold a paper claim.
If that were true, the supply dynamics would be very different. Real Bitcoin on the blockchain will become rarer and the synthetic market will expand. The price movement will be felt quietly because not all new ETF dollars will necessarily be converted into real coins that will be removed from the market.
This theory applies well to the current cycle. We are seeing inflows, but we are not seeing the parabolic movement we saw last year. The demand is there, but it feels like it’s being absorbed into Bitcoin’s invisible paper layer.
institutional market management
This is also the first complete Bitcoin cycle under institutional control. Even back in 2017 and 2021, the market was driven by retail traders and crypto natives. Now it’s all about ETFs, liquidity desks, and market makers connected to Wall Street.
Companies such as BlackRock, Citadel, and JPMorgan have significant exposure to derivatives. They don’t trade on emotion. Their algorithms manage flows in a way that rebalances portfolios, controls volatility, and negates sudden movements.
These companies make money through stability and consistent fees rather than chaotic rallies. Keeping Bitcoin within a predictable range could attract more long-term investors and reduce the risk of regulatory panic. That may explain the slow and controlled growth.
Each new high may be less about demand pressure and more about an invisible hand that rebalances the system to a higher equilibrium, an invisible hand that keeps things “in order.”
macro chess board
Another piece of this strange puzzle lies in the global economy. The macro environment of 2025 will be unlike anything we have seen before. Inflation remains stagnant, interest rates remain high and central banks are unwinding years of aggressive money printing.
The US Federal Reserve has not cut interest rates as quickly as bulls had hoped. China is provocative, Europe is austere, and the United States is caught between politics and economics. The dollar remains strong, which typically limits upside for risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin reacts to this environment in a strange way. It rises on optimism but stalls when yields rise or liquidity tightens. Global capital flows are fragmented and risk appetite fluctuates weekly. The result is exactly what we are seeing – small bounces, frequent corrections, and no obvious trend acceleration.
This is not just a cryptocurrency issue. It’s a macro liquidity issue. The movement of funds that usually causes wild rallies has slowed.
Related: Did Trump and China crash the market again?
Whale distribution and ETF front-running
On-chain data tells another part of the story. Old whales such as miners, early investors, and dormant domiciles are slowly selling off and gaining strength. Don’t throw everything away at once. Instead, only enough is sold to create a certain amount of overhead resistance.
At the same time, ETF issuers and institutions gradually accumulate. They stay ahead of inflows, buy dips, and spread out their purchases to avoid markets moving too quickly. An equilibrium is created in which both sides are active, but neither side wins decisively.
Every time the price goes up a little bit, the supply responds as well. Whenever prices fall, financial institutions start buying. It’s like two big guys arm wrestling in slow motion. It may seem like nothing is happening in the retail industry, but behind the scenes billions of people are changing hands.
This kind of distribution and accumulation balance can keep the market in a range for several months. The longer it lasts, the more explosive the eventual breakout will be, but that moment may still be far away.
Regulatory uncertainty and political maneuvering
This cycle is also influenced by politics. The US election, ongoing global regulatory debates, and constant talk about stablecoins, CBDCs, and crypto taxes have created a fog of uncertainty.
For institutional investors, that fog means only one thing: caution. If you’re a fund with billions of dollars under management, you don’t want Bitcoin to soar 40 percent in one week while the SEC drafts new rules. I want stability.
Some speculate that major companies are intentionally keeping Bitcoin “silent.” This makes it easier to accumulate, easier to manage headlines, and less likely to attract unwanted political attention. If retail excitement remains low, Bitcoin could be slowly integrated into traditional finance without reigniting the frenzy of 2017.
It’s not a crazy idea. It’s a strategy.
Changing psychology in retail
Retail behavior has changed significantly. The crypto crowd that was using FOMO to pump everything is fed up. After years of fraud, liquidation, and false reporting, the enthusiasm has cooled.
Look at social media. In 2021, every 5% move is trending on Twitter. In 2025, Bitcoin will be able to create new ATHs, but half of the community will barely respond. It’s not apathy, it’s fatigue.
Many retail traders are now focused on airdrops, memes, or DeFi farming rather than chasing major markets. They would rather shave off points and multipliers than sit in a boring price range. This shift in attention means that Bitcoin has fewer emotional buyers.
Without the emotional energy of retail, Bitcoin’s rise feels mechanical. Institutions provide capital, but not hype. And without hype, parabolas will not form.
This time, the halving effect will be slower.
In past cycles, the half-life served as the spark. Supply decreased, demand remained constant, and prices exploded. However, this time the halving effect seems to be delayed.
Part of that is because ETFs are gradually absorbing demand. Another is that the miners were better prepared. Many were hedging production in advance or selling future hashrate. The supply shock continues, but the pace is more like a slow burn than a firework.
We may have underestimated how slow this effect will be in mature markets. In 2012 and 2016, results took months. For trillion-dollar assets, it could take much longer for the reduced emissions to be reflected in prices.
Related: Is this a cycle top?
global liquidity flows
Bitcoin is currently traded as part of the global financial system. This is no longer an isolated digital coin, but a macro asset tied to a liquidity cycle.
Bitcoin benefits from increased global liquidity. When it contracts, it stalls. The problem is that liquidity is not uniform. While the US is running out of money, Asia may be easing. That mismatch creates a chop.
Some traders believe that Bitcoin price movements are a lagged reflection of the world’s M2 money supply. If that’s true, the strange sideways movements we’re seeing could reflect uneven liquidity around the world.
Until these cycles synchronize, Bitcoin may continue to decline rather than explode.
Maybe it’s just growing
There is also a simpler explanation. Maybe Bitcoin isn’t weird, it’s just growing.
As market caps reach the multi-trillion dollar region, every 10% change requires tens of billions of dollars in inflows. The law of large numbers kicks in, volatility decreases, and the early cycle wildness disappears.
That doesn’t mean Bitcoin is broken. That means it’s matured. Small new highs, gradual pullbacks, and range-bound trading may all be signs of stability rather than weakness.
For long-term holders, that’s a good thing. A mature Bitcoin could attract pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and larger pools of capital that prefer stability over disruption. For traders looking for the next big breakout, this isn’t all that exciting.
operation theory
Of course, there’s always a darker explanation. Some traders are convinced that large institutions are intentionally suppressing the price of Bitcoin. Through derivatives, over-the-counter trading, and adjusted liquidity walls, upside can be capped while accumulating at lower levels.
This idea goes back to paper Bitcoin. If enough players can control supply flow through synthetic exposure, they can reduce volatility and buy time to build larger positions. It’s not illegal. It’s just a strategic thing.
Whether it’s manipulation or advanced risk management, the effect is the same. Markets feel controlled, predictable, and sometimes lifeless. Until it doesn’t.
A market waiting for that moment
This strangeness may simply be an accumulation phase. Boring ranges, false breakouts, slow pullbacks, all add pressure. When that pressure is released, it usually comes violently.
The following parabolic legs may be forming under our feet. You just don’t see it yet because the rhythm of this cycle has changed. It is quieter, more calculated, and more connected to macro and organizational forces than ever before.
My opinion while traveling
I’ve been traveling a lot lately, flying, going to weddings, and family vacations, and I’m still looking at the charts even from the other side of the world. The setup looks sane, but it’s confusing. Bitcoin feels strong, but I’m hesitant. The dip is bought, but the high price disappears quickly.
It’s like watching two forces silently battle each other: the old cryptocurrency and the new Wall Street version. Somewhere between these two worlds, true price discovery is occurring.
And maybe that’s the point. Bitcoin is no longer just a rebellion against the system. It’s slowly becoming a part of it.
My personal decision after using Bitcoin for 12 years
I’ve been involved with Bitcoin since 2013. We’ve seen Bitcoin grow from a far-fetched idea to a global financial force. I have always believed in decentralized digital money. But even I feel tired after completing this cycle. Constant manipulation, slow motion price movements, and endless waiting for the next explosive move can wear you out.
And when you see gold rallying 50 percent this year while Bitcoin slumps, the impact is different. For the first time, I have decided to completely exit my long-term holdings of cryptocurrencies by the end of this year.
Of course, I will continue to be active in cryptocurrencies. I will continue to farm, trade and build. However, my savings will go into real estate, gold, and stocks. I no longer see the point in holding Bitcoin for another 10 years hoping for the same dream. It’s not about quitting in anger, it’s just about changing your perspective.
More on that later.
Please support our activities
If you found this helpful, please consider signing up for BloFin (non-KYC) or Bybit using our referral link. Your support helps keep this content flowing free.
final thoughts
Whether it’s paper Bitcoin, market management, macro imbalances, or just natural evolution, one thing is clear. That is, this cycle is different. It’s not explosive, it’s methodical. It’s not emotional, it’s designed.
And maybe that’s what Bitcoin needs right now. Burns slowly instead of flash. A cycle that strengthens its role as digital gold, not just a speculative rocket.
Yes, it’s a strange cycle. But strange doesn’t mean bad. That means we are once again in uncharted territory, and history shows that is where Bitcoin thrives.
If you enjoyed this blog, be sure to check out our guide on looping strategies to utilize while farming.
As always, don’t forget to claim the following bonuses at Bybit. See you next time!
