Important points:
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Bitcoin needs to hold the $114,000 support to confirm its recovery.
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Spot volume and trading activity will need to recover to ensure a sustained breakout in BTC price.
Bitcoin (BTC) has risen 10% from its October 17 low of $103,500, but appears to have stalled at $115,000 due to declining demand and weak on-chain activity.
Several analysts have revealed what needs to happen for Bitcoin to increase its chances of breaking above $115,000 in the coming days or weeks.
Bitcoin should hold $114,000 support
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC price has risen 5% over the past seven days, reclaiming key levels including the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the psychological level of $110,000, and support at $114,000.
Related: BTC price aims for monthly closing record: 5 things to know about Bitcoin this week
According to Swissbloc, whether Bitcoin turns bullish depends on whether the bulls defend the support at $114,000.
“Confirmation is important this week, proving that Bitcoin is forming a bottom and can sustain support at $114,000,” the personal wealth manager said in a post on X on Tuesday.
SwissBlock explained that the key lies in “igniting momentum”, as price momentum has remained negative since the October 11 flash crash, adding:
“For BTC to sustain its upward run, it needs to create new buying pressure to defend $114,000 and start building a new bullish structure from that base.”
Crypto analyst Recto Capital said Bitcoin bulls need to turn the weekly closing price of $114,500 into support through a retest to confirm the breakout.
Bitcoin managed to break above both the 21-week EMA (green) and $114.5,000 (black) in weekly closing prices.
Both $114.5k and EMA are likely to be retested to confirm a return to support$BTC Achieved this through a volatile retest of $114.5k, which could be siphoned off to the EMA below#cipher #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/hw1chWDSdx
— Rect Capital (@rektcapital) October 27, 2025
Fellow analyst Daan Crypto Trades said it is important to maintain the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $114,000 going forward.
As reported by Cointelegraph, bulls aimed to protect the $112,300 to $114,500 demand zone, with their eyes set on all-time highs above $126,000.
New demand, on-chain activity drives BTC higher
The lack of buyers and low network activity seem to limit Bitcoin’s chances of rising above $115,000.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) and perpetual CVD, while still negative, have leveled out over the past two weeks.
This is a sign that “aggressive selling pressure has subsided in recent days,” on-chain data provider Glassnode said in a post on X.
Meanwhile, spot trading volume fell 17.5% to $12.5 billion from $15.2 billion the previous week, suggesting a lack of speculative activity.
The decline suggests that Bitcoin’s recent rally to $116,000 was “not supported by broad participation,” Glassnode wrote in its latest weekly Market Impulse report, adding:
“This pullback suggests a cooling of participants and a possible consolidation phase, with an increase in prices yet to be confirmed due to increased capital inflows.”
An increase in spot volume could coincide with a broader accumulation phase and trigger a strong rally.
Additionally, on-chain activity remains subdued, with “lower active addresses, transfer volumes, and fees indicating a quieter network environment and a more consolidated user base,” Glassnode said, adding:
“Until confidence grows and demand grows, Bitcoin is likely to remain range bound, with cautious optimism starting to give way to defensiveness.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, consolidation amid favorable signals on the RSI and an expected Federal Reserve rate cut could trigger the next rally in the coming days.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.