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Bitcoin’s 2025 journey has not brought about many expected explosive bull market surges. After peaking above $100,000, Bitcoin prices in 2025 were rapidly rising to a low of $75,000, sparking debate for investors and analysts about where they stand on the Bitcoin cycle. This analysis will help you get through the noise and leverage on-chain indicators and macro data to determine whether the Bitcoin Bull Market remains unharmed or whether Bitcoin correction is looming in the third quarter of 2025.
Is Bitcoin’s 2025 pullback healthy or will the bull cycle end?
A powerful starting point for assessing the 2025 Bitcoin Cycle is the MVRV Z score. This is a reliable on-chain indicator that compares market value with realised value. After hitting 3.36 at Bitcoin’s $100,000 peak, the MVRV Z score fell to 1.43, with the price of 2025 Bitcoin falling from $100,000 to $75,000. This 30% Bitcoin correction may look surprising, but recent data shows rebounds of MVRV Z scores from a minimum of 1.43 in 2025.
Historically, the MVRV Z-score level was around 1.43, marking local bottoms rather than tops in previous Bitcoin Bull Markets (e.g., 2017 and 2021). These Bitcoin pullbacks preceded the often resumed upward trend, suggesting that the current correction coincides with the dynamics of healthy bull cycles. Investor trust is shaking, but this move fits the historical pattern of the Bitcoin market cycle.
How the 2025 Bitcoin Bull Market Smart Money will be formed
Another important on-chain indicator, Multiple Multiple Days (VDD), tracks the speed of BTC transactions weighted by retention period. A rapid increase in VDD signal profit gains from experienced holders. On the other hand, the low level indicates the accumulation of Bitcoin. Currently, VDD is in the “green zone” and is the mirroring level seen in the recovery of late bare markets or early bull markets.
Following the Bitcoin reversal from $100,000, the low VDD suggests the end of the profit-taking phase, with long-term holders accumulating in anticipation of rising Bitcoin prices in 2025. The Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flowchart further highlights this trend and breaks down realised capital in the age of coins. Near the $106,000 peak, new market entrants (<1 month <1 month) have driven a surge in activity, informing FOMO-driven purchases. Since Bitcoin pullback, the group's activities have been cooled to a level typical of early bloom markets.
In contrast, 1-2 year cohorts (often macro-savvy Bitcoin investors) accumulate at lower prices to increase activity. This shift reflects the Bitcoin accumulation pattern from 2020 and 2021, where long-term holders purchase during dips and set the stage for Bull Cycle Rally.
Where are you in the 2025 Bitcoin Market Cycle?
Zoom out and the Bitcoin Market Cycle can be divided into three phases.
- Bare Phase: 70-90% deep Bitcoin correction.
- Recovery stage: Recovers previous highs.
- Bull/Index Stage: A progression in the price of parabolic bitcoin.
Past Bear Markets (2015, 2018) lasted 13-14 months, with the latest Bitcoin Bear Market going on after 14 months. The collection phase usually spans 23-26 months, and the current 2025 Bitcoin cycle falls within this range. Unlike past bull markets, however, there was a pullback rather than an immediate surge after a breakout that surpassed Bitcoin’s previous high.
This bitcoin pullback could indicate a higher or lower than setting the index stage for the bull market in 2025. Based on the 9-11 month index phase of the past cycle, it is possible that Bitcoin prices will peak around September 2025, assuming that the bull cycle has resumed.
Macros risk affecting Bitcoin prices for the third quarter of 2025
Despite the bullish on-chain indicator, macro headwinds pose risk to the 2025 Bitcoin price. The S&P 500 vs Bitcoin correlation chart shows that Bitcoin is closely linked to US stocks. Fearing a global recession will increase, the weakness of traditional markets can curb the possibility of a short-term rally for Bitcoin.
It is extremely important to monitor these macro risks. This is because if the equity market deteriorates, Bitcoin correction could be more deeply corrected in the third quarter of 2025, even if data on the chain is supported.
Conclusion: Bitcoin’s third quarter outlook for 2025
Key On-Chain Indicators – MVRV Z Score, Destructed Value Days, and Bitcoin Cycle Capital Flow – Showing healthy, cycle-free behavior and accumulation of long-term holders during the Bitcoin Cycle in 2025. Although slower and uneven compared to past bull markets, the current cycle is consistent with the historic Bitcoin market cycle structure. Once the macro conditions are stable, it appears that Bitcoin is poised in another leg, potentially peaking in Q3 or Q4 2025.
However, macro risks, including stock market volatility and fear of recession, remain important to watch. For deeper diving, check out this YouTube video: Where to be on this Bitcoin Cycle.
For more in-depth research, technical metrics, real-time market alerts, and access to the growing community of analysts, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making an investment decision.
