Coinbase (COIN)’s disappointing third-quarter earnings report drew mixed reactions from Wall Street analysts, highlighting vast differences in expectations for the crypto exchange’s long-term growth and ability to control costs.
The company posted $1.05 billion in trading revenue and $801 million in adjusted EBITDA, both of which beat consensus estimates. Analysts across the board agreed that derivatives trading, subscription services, and the integration of Deribit helped propel Beat forward. Opinions were divided from there.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish acknowledged Coinbase’s performance, but warned of rising costs and shrinking margins heading into the fourth quarter. He cited increased operating expenses due to hiring and acquisitions such as the fundraising platform Echo as a major challenge. Budish lowered his price target from $361 to $357, citing lower earnings expectations for 2026.
Clear Street’s Owen Lau was more hilarious. He raised his target from $405 to $415, arguing that Coinbase is well-positioned to benefit from a growing role in cross-border B2B payments. Lau pointed to Coinbase’s partnerships with Citi and Shopify and said stablecoin-based merchant payments could take market share from traditional channels. He also warned that regulatory developments, such as the possible passage of the Clarity Act in the US next year, could trigger an “altcoin summer.”
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed his optimism, maintaining a buy rating and $421 target. He explained that Coinbase has demonstrated operating leverage as the crypto market warms, and earnings have returned to strength. He highlighted the importance of subscription revenue, which grew 14% sequentially, and the company’s role in widespread institutional adoption of digital assets.
Citi also struck an upbeat note, highlighting momentum across the exchange’s expanding business lines.
Analysts led by Peter Christiansen said they were encouraged by the company’s progress in closing new “on-chain-as-a-service” partnerships with Samsung and several banks. The report added that the company’s ‘Everything Exchange’ vision is beginning to take shape, with options trading currently underway and futures trading volumes expected to increase.
Pending digital asset reforms could improve market access, and the bank said it could also unleash a “wave of pent-up innovation”. Analysts reaffirmed the stock’s buy rating and $505 price target.
However, Compass Point’s Ed Engel warned that Coinbase would be in a vulnerable position if the crypto market cools, as cost growth outpaces revenue. He lowered his 2026 EBITDA forecast, cutting the target from $277 to $266. Engel was skeptical that stablecoin and staking revenue growth would continue, especially if interest rates fall and enthusiasm for retail crypto wanes.
Broker Bernstein noted that the company’s results were below expectations, but said the company is “on the path to generational expansion, and its fate is not simply determined by the price movements of cryptocurrencies.”
Rolling out the Base app to millions of users in parallel with the launch of the Base token could mark a “Crypto Venmo” moment for Coinbase, signaling a major step toward mainstream adoption, the report said. The broker reiterated the stock’s outperform rating and $510 price target.
The biggest point of agreement was Coinbase’s growing presence in derivatives and stablecoin-related products. However, analysts pointed to lower fee rates and increased competition from Circle Internet (CRCL), which is trying to pull more USDC stablecoins onto its own platform, which also warranted attention.
At the end of the day, Coinbase’s short-term success is clear. However, the crypto market remains volatile and the company is spending heavily on growth, so its long-term prospects will depend on whether new revenue streams such as B2B payments and tokenized assets can scale fast enough to justify the investment.
The current price targets range from $266 to $510, the difference reflecting both the opportunity Coinbase is chasing and the risk if it stumbles.