The shutdown is over, but the market remains cautious
rear 41 days of political stalemateThe American government has finally reopened. Many expected this to stimulate risk-on sentiment, but the crypto market’s reaction was muted. Bitcoin continues to trade at close levels $105,000around Ethereum $3,500and most altcoins remain in the red region.
This paradox of positive macro news and bearish markets has investors asking questions such as: What is really going on?
Why was the government shut down – and why does it matter?
If Congress cannot pass the bill, a government shutdown will occur. budget or ongoing solution For operating funds. This time, disagreements over spending priorities and new trade-related tariffs pushed negotiations past the deadline.
The result is 41 days of closurelonger than the record 35-day closure in 2018-2019. During the shutdown, government agencies suspend services, economic data is delayed, and uncertainty dampens investor sentiment.
Historically, markets recover when businesses reopen, but only if liquidity conditions are supportive. Not this time.
What Happens Next: Major Economic Changes to Watch
1. Rate cut likely in December
The market expects Rate cut by Decemberthis could be the first monetary easing in several years. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs and typically support risky assets, but they also send a signal. slowing growthexplains the mixed reactions across the market.
2. Quantitative tightening ends on December 1st
The end of QT means the Federal Reserve will stop shrinking its balance sheet. This could ease liquidity pressure and stabilize the market into Q1 2026. However, traders are looking for confirmation before becoming completely bullish.
3. Quantitative easing (QE) could return in early 2026
new round quantitative easingThe Fed purchasing assets to inject liquidity would be a strong bullish trigger for both Bitcoin and stocks. But that is still a long way off, so the market is taking a “wait and see” approach.
4. Draft of virtual currency market structure bill announced
a Virtual currency market structure bill It is currently underway with the aim of clarifying how digital assets are classified and traded. This could lead to long-term regulatory clarity, which is positive for financial institutions, but the immediate price impact remains limited.
5. Over 150 altcoin ETF applications awaiting approval
Optimism regarding ETFs continues as more issuers apply for crypto-based funds. But until approval is granted, this remains speculative momentum rather than viable liquidity.
Gold price surge as a warning signal
Interestingly, more than $750 billion Gold was added to the market capitalization during the same period. it’s obvious risk-off indicatorsuggesting that capital is rotating toward safety rather than speculation. When gold shines, it is often Cryptocurrency and stocks are cooling down.
Market sentiment: Funding rates turn negative
funding rate of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana It has turned negative across major exchanges, indicating that traders are paying to short sell, betting on a bull market.
Negative financing is often Skepticism prevails. But it’s also a preparation for the potential short aperture If positive momentum returns.
Whale activities arouse interest
It is reported that the famous whale’s wallet has changed from short to huge. $195.7 million ETH long position Immediately after price revision. Whether this is insider confidence or calculated speculation, here’s how it happens. Smart money is positioning early Meanwhile, retailers remain cautious.
Why the market remains bearish despite good news
The most important reason is simple. Liquidity has not returned yet.
Reopening the government removes one uncertainty, but it does not result in an injection of new capital. A real bullish trend requires: monetary easing, ETF approvaland Influx of institutional investors—None of this has happened yet.
Until then, the market may oscillate between recovery and decline, similar to the early stages of recovery following past government shutdowns.
Historical context: What happens after a shutdown?
Looking back at past closures, the market typically looks like this:
- Please refer to Short-term relief rebound Once funding resumes.
- remain unstable for several weeks As investors reassess the impact of policy.
- upward trend Only if the liquidity situation improves— typically follows Fed action.
The current setup matches a pattern of reassurance, skepticism, and waiting for proof of liquidity.
What investors should pay attention to next
- House final vote Confirmation of reopening bill.
- Federal Reserve Board Statement The December meeting, especially the rate cut signal.
- Normalization of funding rates As a sign that your emotions are changing.
- ETF approval flow— Green light could trigger altcoin recovery.
- Gold and Bitcoin flowindicates whether risk appetite returns.
Conclusion: the calm before the real storm
The US government’s reopening of the economy is undoubtedly positive, but it has not yet revitalized the market. Traders remain cautious as liquidity returns and policy signals evolve.
in short, Foundation for future bullish cycles It may have been placed, but the spark hasn’t ignited yet.
Heading into the December Federal Reserve meeting, expect sideways movement, unexpected pressure, and rising expectations.