Bitcoin has just hit a record high and is headlined again, but this time a major bank believes the rise is not over.
Standard Chartered further strengthened its bold forecast that the world’s largest digital assets could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, due to strong demand from institutional investors, an influx of ETFs and increased trust in rare digital assets.
The forecast came just as Bitcoin was trading near $125,000, just surpassing its history high of around $124,500 in August. It has risen 12% in the past week, further extending the fourth quarter surge that many call “uptober.”
“Demand for ETFs continues to bring structural bids to Bitcoin.” “They’re not a problem,” said Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered.
He explained that inflows from institutional investors are restructuring the market base, noting that if ETF inflows continue at this rate, prices could lead to record-breaking surges towards 2026, as Bitcoin supply is limited.
Related: US listed Bitcoin ETFs now account for more than 6% of total BTC supply
Kendrick’s short-term goal is $135,000, but it is likely to be achieved soon. The bank believes this is due to a combination of macro factors, ETF inflows and US government closures, leading to investors heading towards alternative assets.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin prices are increasingly correlated with U.S. Treasury Term Premium, a measure of market risk associated with government debt. Historically, government finances uncertainty has led to an increasing demand for Bitcoin as a hedge of fiscal risk.
“Closing is important this time.” Kendrick wrote.
“During the last Trump administration shutdown (December 22, 2018 to January 25, 2019), Bitcoin was in a different situation than it is now, so it had little effect. However, this year’s Bitcoin is trading with ‘US government risk’, as best shown by its relationship with U.S. Treasury Term Premium.”
As markets are tense and investors are seeking protection from volatility, Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin could benefit in the coming weeks.
In forecast markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, people are increasingly optimistic about people who expect Bitcoin to surpass $120,000 or even reach $150,000 in the coming months.
One of the key pillars of Standard Chartered’s claims is the massive flow of funds to Bitcoin ETFs. Since the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the Spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, products have made great strides.
These funds have absorbed newly mined Bitcoin (sometimes nine times faster than Bitcoin), tightening the supply of assets, creating what Kendrick calls a structural supply tightness.
Standard Chartered isn’t the only ones who are bullish. Other major banks have also shown a positive attitude towards Bitcoin.
JPMorgan expects Bitcoin is undervalued compared to gold, and could reach $165,000 if it is comparable to private gold investments. Based on market trends after the half-life, Citigroup expects $133,000 and BanEck to be $180,000 by the end of 2025.
What is consistent across these reports is that despite the collapse of traditional half-life-based timing models, ETF influx, macro uncertainty and institutional adoption are driving new cycles.