This is an analysis post by Coindesk analyst and chartered market engineer Omkar Godbole.
Approaching the final quarter of 2025, the following key charts provide valuable insights to help crypto traders navigate the evolving market landscape.
Bullish seasonality
Seasonal trends suggest both bullish fourth quarter outlook and the top two cryptocurrencies by market capitalization.
Since 2013, According to Coinglass data, the average return was 85% in the last quarter, with the fourth quarter historically being the strongest period for the Bulls.
November stands out as the most bullish month, with an average increase of 46% followed by October, typically an increase of 21%.
Its strongest historic returns have also been made in the first quarter since its inception, but have tended to work well for the past three months of the year.
50 weeks of SMA support for BTC
Bitcoin prices fell 5% this week, and are set to bring losses closer to $107,300 to their late August lows, consistent with bearish technical signals. If the Bulls don’t follow that, the focus shifts to $104,200 to the 200-day simple moving average.
The ongoing price drop, coupled with Bitcoin’s historical pattern of peaking around 16-18 months after the harving event, can scare bulls.
However, such concerns may be premature as long as the price exceeds the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA). This moving average consistently served as a level of support, marking the end of the reconciliation price pull-in at the current Bull Run, which began in early 2023.
Therefore, traders should watch carefully the 50-week SMA, currently located around $98,900, as a key level in the broader market direction.
XRP/BTC compression
XRP, often referred to as “US government coins” by companies like ARCA, has skyrocketed 32% this year. However, despite this powerful gathering, payment-focused cryptocurrencies remain limited within long, lateral trading ranges against Bitcoin (XRP/BTC), showing limited relative strength.
The XRP/BTC pair has been limited to a narrow trading range since early 2021, resulting in low volatile compression of more than four years.
Recent price action near the channel’s upper limit suggests that the Bulls are gradually gaining control. Because of the release of accumulated energy from this aperture, such a breakout from long-term integration can cause strong gatherings in XRP compared to BTC.
Now let’s look at the charts that need attention.
Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (SMST) breakout
– Leveraged Don Strategy ETF (SMST) seeking to provide daily investment results of 200% or minus twice as much, changes in the daily percentage of Bitcoin Holder Strategy (MSTR) stock prices are flashing bullish signals.
The price of the ETF rose to a five-month high of $35.65, forming what appears to be a characterised reverse head and shoulder pattern, sandwiched between two small, almost equal troughs (shoulders).
This pattern often shows a potential bullish reversal, suggesting that ETFs may be preparing for important upward movements.
In other words, bearish signals are flashing on both BTC and strategy, the largest publicly listed BTC holder with a coin stash of 639,835 BTC.
Dollar Index double bottom
Last week I discussed the resilience of the dollar’s post-feed rate as a potential headwind for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Since then, the dollar index has been acquired on the ground and has established a double bottom at around 96.30. This is an indication that the Bulls have successfully established a minimal path of resistance on the higher side.
Continuous movements over 100.26 are the height of the mid-recovery between the twin bottoms around 96.30, confirming the so-called double-bottom breakout and opening the door to move to 104.00.
Be careful of patterns below 96.00. This is because it could lead to increased risk taking in financial markets.
NVDA topping?
Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s largest listed company, continues to flirt with the highs of June 2024 and November 2024, which are precursors of risky assets, and the top edge of the expansion channel identified in April 2025.
The rally has been stagnating at the upper trend line since late July with signs of bullish fatigue. If it decreases from here, it could indicate the start of a risk-off period in global markets, including cryptocurrencies.