Prediction Markets See Declining Confidence in Trump’s Tariff Case

President Trump’s trade policies have repeatedly affected markets, including virtual currencies, and uncertainty has spread.

Traders are now watching the Supreme Court decide whether President Trump had the authority to impose sweeping tariffs. Investors are nervous about how the ruling will affect the market, with both stocks and cryptocurrencies bracing for the impact.

Markets react to court signals

Traders in both traditional and crypto-based prediction markets are indicating a sharp decline in their confidence that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of President Trump’s tariffs following recent developments.

In Calci, a regulated forecast, the probability of Trump’s victory dropped to 29%. Meanwhile, crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket showed a similar decline, with odds of 25%. The plunge shows that traders are increasingly doubting President Trump’s victory as the court decision approaches.

Supreme Court justices question Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs

U.S. Supreme Court justices recently questioned the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. The conservative and liberal justices asked Trump’s lawyers whether the 1977 emergency law gave the president the power to impose tariffs or whether the president was interfering with Congress’ authority.

However, some justices also noted the president’s inherent authority to handle foreign affairs, suggesting the court may be divided on this issue as well. This incident is expected to have a major impact on the world economy.

Trade negotiations with China, the EU, and other countries may also be affected.

President Trump is pushing the Supreme Court to keep tariffs as a key economic and foreign policy tool. Notably, President Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on nearly all of the United States’ trading partners, making him the first president to use the power in this way.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said if the courts rule against Trump, the administration could turn to other legal authorities to ensure the tariffs continue.

The tariffs could generate trillions of dollars in revenue for the United States over the next decade. President Trump said in an interview that the case was “successful” and warned that without tariffs the world would face a recession.

Impact on the virtual currency market

President Trump’s tariffs have caused major fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. The announcement of 100% tariffs on China caused more than $19 billion in liquidations in the crypto market and shows how sensitive global markets can react to his trade actions.

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