Mike Ritchko, a researcher at Azuro, a prediction market infrastructure provider, believes prediction markets are becoming mainstream, and the data seems to back that up.
In a Thursday post on X, Rychko argued that prediction markets are moving beyond cryptocurrencies and into the real world, and that their accessibility will likely lead to their success as the first decentralized finance (DeFi) product to achieve mass adoption.
“Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Richko wrote. “But ‘Mamdani has an 87% chance of winning’ – that’s what everyone says.”
He added that “humans are inherently lazy” and crave “clean, easily digestible signals,” and prediction markets meet that demand by turning complex predictions into simple data points.
“That simplicity is why prediction markets are seeing mass adoption faster than most DeFi experiments to date.”
Earlier this month, cryptocurrency-powered prediction market Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the NYSE, at a valuation of $9 billion.
Reports in early September said Polymarket was aiming to start operations in the United States after the US president’s son was appointed to its board of directors, potentially valuing the company at $10 billion.
Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet stablecoins on real-world events, from elections to sports outcomes. The platform soared in popularity during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with activity and trading volumes at an all-time high.
Prediction markets enter the zeitgeist
Richko noted that prediction markets have reached unprecedented levels of mainstream visibility in recent months. Calci’s New York City screen, a competitor to Predictive Markets and Polymarket, showing a live feed of the market dedicated to the mayoral election, has garnered widespread attention, with the video garnering nearly 13 million views on X alone.
Richko described the exhibit as a “public signal” and “a real-time reflection of collective beliefs.” “Just as stock tickers once defined the financial era of the ’80s, predictive tickers are beginning to define the information economy of the 2020s,” he writes.
Kalshi is a U.S. regulated prediction market platform that operates under the supervision of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is the first federally regulated exchange for event contracts. The platform was recently featured on a long-running animated show. south parkan episode focused on U.S. President Donald Trump, a cornerstone of pop culture.
Related: New York Stock Exchange parent company invests $2 billion in Polymarket valued at $9 billion
Prediction markets will experience significant growth
Although Kalshi is not a crypto-driven platform, it joins a market segment primarily fueled by crypto projects.
Polymarket gained notoriety in late 2024 as the market attracted significant attention and funding during the US presidential election. According to Dune data, the service reached an all-time high in the number of daily active wallets in early 2025, exceeding 72,600 as of January 19th.
The highest number of transactions on the platform occurred on December 27, 2024, with approximately 590,000 transactions in a single day. Although the platform has not yet returned to its peak, usage remains high. Dune said the company processed more than $1 billion in trade volume this month, bringing its cumulative trade volume to more than $15.7 billion.
Related: Nobel Peace Prize bet on polymarkets under intense scrutiny: report
This trend is clearly visible when we look at the total amount of money locked in Polmarket. According to DefiLlama, the protocol currently manages over $194 million. That’s 62% lower than the roughly $512 million reported at the height of U.S. presidential election betting, but 2,325% higher than the $8 million just a year ago.
Richko said this steady activity highlights the appeal of prediction markets as DeFi’s most relevant product, blending cultural relevance with real-world financial participation.
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