According to Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, the government’s adoption of Bitcoin is about to take the lead. After years of slow and careful steps, Mow believes that the nation-state is suddenly trying to buy Bitcoin from a gradual one.
“I think we’re gradually at the tail end. We’re in the first stage of the sudden.” Mow spoke about Bitcoin doing a podcast with Danny Knowles. “These things happen very quickly… literally, gradually, suddenly.”
For most of the past decade, the government has kept Bitcoin arm-length. Some rejected it as a speculative bubble, while others focused on regulations rather than adoption. But Mow says the times are coming to an end soon.
The country is now openly speaking about strategic Bitcoin reserves. This is Bitcoin held by the government that becomes part of government bonds or sovereign wealth funds. He says that when one country makes a big public move, others follow.
One of the most viewed is the United States. President Trump has signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, but the government has not yet begun buying Bitcoin in the open market.
Samson Mow noted that the US is “moving forward” with budget-neutral acquisition strategies and laws like the Bitcoin Act, but delays in actual purchases will leave the door open for others to act first. “The risk is that the US is at the forefront by Pakistan.” He warned.
To date, the US government already owns 198,012 bitcoins according to data on the chain. These coins are primarily due to law enforcement seizures and are not intentional accumulation.
The government officially holds around 29,000 BTC, but the rest is still tied up in court, waiting to be returned to the victims of hacking and fraud or handed over to the government.
Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy Digital, recently said he believes the US will officially officially set up the Bitcoin Reserve by the end of this year.
Others may be moving faster while discussing in the US. The grass is the most bullish in Latin America. Several countries in the region use bitcoin to stabilize their economy and increase their economic independence.
If one or more governments begin construction of reserves, it could trigger a wider adoption. Fidelity Digital Assets said earlier this year that the central bank, sovereign wealth funds and the Treasury Department were considering Bitcoin.
Despite expectations of national state adoption, Bitcoin prices have not followed the 2025 script.
“We should have already been bull run.” Mo said. “Like a massive run.” Instead, Bitcoin appears to be stuck between $110,000 and $120,000, a 2% decline over the past month.
Mow and others believe that the current cycle is behind. Some believe that 2026 will be the next big-up year. “I think 2026 will be this year.” said Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise.
This has sparked debate as to whether the traditional four-year cycle (bound to halving) applies to the era of ETFs and institutional and nation-state adoption.