Important takeouts:
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XRP exceeded a critical level in September, raising hopes for a potential recovery in October.
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It’s important to outweigh the $2.81 resistance, with technical projecting around 30% of the rally at $3.62.
XRP (XRP) traded at around $2.77 in its monthly opening after a 14% decline in the past two weeks. Sparks at this level are hoping that heals will be made to the cards that will be in October.
XRP price should exceed $2.75
According to analysts, XRP is facing important tests as it is open at around $2.75 near September 1st.
This level coincides with the lower bound of the symmetric triangle, as shown in the daily chart below. Holding above the trend line increases the chances of breaks above the chart $2.86 (100-day simple moving average (SMA)). This move could reach a bullish triangle target for $3.62
GlassNode Distribution Heatmap shows that the large demand cluster is $2.75 and approximately 1.5 billion XRP will be acquired, reinforcing this level of importance.
However, there is a supply barrier that sits at around $2.81 (accepted by a 100-day SMA), which could hamper recovery efforts in the short term.
Related: Will XRP prices crash after falling below $3 again?
Conversely, a drop below $2.75 could lead to another sale against $2.00, a bearish target for symmetrical triangles.
“$XRP is still in a solid bullish consolidation,” said analyst Hardy on Sunday’s X Post, adding that as long as the price is above $2.72-$2.75, “there is a possibility of upwards.”
fellow analyst XForceglobal pointed out that the breakouts are so strong that XRP merges around $2.75, adding that there is a goal of $20-30.
As reported by Cointelegraph, based on the Fibonacci extended analysis, XRP could drop to $2.50 before price rebound.
October is usually a bad month for XRP
Unfortunately for bulls, XRP tends to struggle in October. Since 2013, prices have been closed in red for seven months of the past 12 months, with an average return rate of around 4.58%.
However, November is the best month, with the period from October to December being the best quarter at the XRP price rallies. According to Cryptorank data, the average growth rate is 51%, the only three months.
Looking at the recent years, XRP attracted around 240% in the fourth quarter and 20% in the fourth quarter of 2023. The rally was exponential in 2017, earning a 1,064% profit between October 1 and December 1.
It was also outliers on the bare cycle, including a -39.1% loss in 2018 and a -29.2% loss in 2022. But in any case, the last quarter of the year will consistently bring about a significant move.
If history takes anything, XRP price action could be completely reversed in the fourth quarter, and that recovery could begin by mid-October.
XRPETF can cause “Uptober”
The October ETF spotlight could add Tailwinds to the XRP rally, with the SEC deadline approaching mid-month.
Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF decision was pushed on November 14th, with Rex/Osprey’s XRPR debuting on September 18th, bringing the volume on the opening day to nearly $38 million.
The Grayscale decision is expected on October 18th, with a significant deadline for other applications scheduled between October 19th and October 25th.
Analysts say the streamlined SEC standards and the clarity of the lawsuit after the Ripple case brought approval odds to 100% by December 31st, unlocking $4-8 billion in freshman influx.
However, market participants warn that this potential event may already be partially priced, increasing the risk of approval turning it into a “selling news” event.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.