Important points:
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Bitcoin is on track to end October in the red, breaking its six-year “uptober” streak.
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Traders are divided, with some fearing a major correction ahead and others still predicting a new high in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to end October in the red for the first time in seven years, and traders are divided on whether BTC will continue its downward trend in November.
Bitcoin breaks new record for “all-time highs”
After six consecutive years of “uptober” gains, Bitcoin is on track to break that streak this year.
October is often nicknamed because it has delivered Bitcoin’s highest monthly returns over the past decade since 2013, but Red October has only existed twice: in 2014 and 2018.
This record is backed by six consecutive years of increases from 2019 to 2024.
Related: BTC production surges 27%, Riot says Bitcoin is not the ‘end goal’
Bitcoin has been trading 3.35% lower in October, with only a few hours left until the end of the month, and the tide will likely turn in 2025.
“End of the month. We need a strong green candle today or we will see the reddest October close in 7 years,” analyst Jere said in a post on X.
October’s losses were widened by a mid-month flash crash caused by the threat of U.S.-China tariffs, and the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points rate cut on Wednesday did little to boost investor sentiment.
“For the first time in 7 years, October is red!” TraderAAG said in a post by X, adding:
“The crypto market has troubled many traders this month. Momentum has waned and confidence has wavered.”
Fellow analyst Crypto Dams said the volatility Bitcoin has experienced this month is “not normal” as October is historically the second-best month of the year for Bitcoin.
There’s nothing “normal” about this #BTC volatility
Statistically, October is the second best month of the year. #BTC
This is the worst October since the 2018 bear market.
Third Red October since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zVjvJH1was
— CRYPTO Dams (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025
Is November undecided?
Some traders say that red October is “just a setup for an even bigger November rally,” while others think Bitcoin’s bullish cycle may be wavering and nearing its end.
The last time BTC ended in the red in October was in 2018, and “November saw a hefty 36.57% decline,” analyst Crypto Rover said in a post on Friday X, adding:
“Should I be worried this time?”
“What does the October weakness mean for Bitcoin?” author and analyst Timothy Peterson asked in his latest post on X, adding that there is essentially “no correlation between October and subsequent months.”
However, Bitcoin growth in the fourth quarter typically slows following October’s weakness, Peterson added.
“Bitcoin’s average three-month return after an October downturn is 11% (since 2016). In the case of a strong October, it is 21%.”
Historically, November has been the best month for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 46% over the 12 years since 2013. According to data from Coinglass, the period from October to December has been the best quarter for BTC price growth, with an average increase of 78%.
Looking at recent years, Bitcoin rose about 57% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and about 48% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The rise in 2017 was even steeper, rising 480% between October 1st and December 1st.
There were also outliers in bear cycles such as -42% in 2018 and -15% in 2022. But either way, the final quarter of the year always brings big moves.
If history is any guide, Bitcoin’s price trend could completely reverse in November and skyrocket towards $150,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.