Tether’s accumulation of U.S. Treasuries would put stablecoin issuers on a path to becoming among the top five foreign holders by 2033 under a realistic accelerated case based on current balances, stated purchase activity, and migration criteria set by the U.S. Treasury’s TIC data.
This projection assumes that Tether continues to grow assets at a higher net annual pace each year, while the 5th place line for foreign holders continues to shift.
As of June 30, the company had approximately $127 billion in U.S. Treasury exposure, consisting of approximately $105.5 billion in direct notes and approximately $21.3 billion in indirect exposure.
This puts Tether at 18th place on the list of foreign US Treasury holders at the moment, making it the 7th largest buyer in 2024.
According to the same disclosure, Tether’s net additions in 2024 are reported to be $33.1 billion, which equates to approximately $2.8 billion per month. Quarterly changes in early 2025 show occupancy is in line with its annual numbers.
According to the U.S. Treasury Department’s table of major foreign holders, in terms of the number of foreign holders as of July 2025, Japan was the largest foreign holder with approximately $1.15 trillion, followed by Belgium in fifth place with approximately $428 billion, and the status of storage varies greatly from month to month.
In terms of size, the Federal Reserve reported about $4.2 trillion in Treasury bills on its balance sheet at the beginning of October 2025, and Treasury data showed there was about $5.78 trillion in Treasury bills outstanding as of mid-year, with Tether’s holdings representing nearly 2% of the bills market.
These reference points frame the size of the gap that Tether needs to fill and the market capacity that Tether will leverage.
The table below summarizes the scenario bands in which Tether emerges into the top five.
| assumption set | Acceleration (a) | Bar growth (g) | Years from mid-2025 | Forecast year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| basic pace, slow bar | $0 billion/year² | $0 to $10 billion per year | ～9～13 | 2034-2038 |
| Modest acceleration, slow bars | +$5 billion/year² | $0 to $10 billion per year | ~6～7 | 2031-2033 |
| Modest acceleration, faster bars | +$5 billion/year² | $30 billion annually | ～8～13 | 2033-2039 |
| Higher acceleration, faster bars | +$8 billion/year² | $30 billion annually | ~8 | 2033 |
This parameter reflects both Tether’s recent trends and the documented volatility in its 5th place ranking.
Calculation transparency (skip if you don’t like formulas)
This projection uses simple, transparent models related to these public series.
Let me S0 By mid-2025, it will be $127 billion.
Let me r0 The current pace of net additions is $33.1 billion per year.
To capture the “purchase acceleration” path, assume that annual net additions increase by a constant a each year. So the total tether after t years will be: S