The US government shutdown lasted more than a month, making it the longest shutdown in US history.
It is affecting everything from the economy to financial markets, and there is growing concern about its impact. Analysts are concerned about how long this situation could last and how it will affect the overall economy and the crypto market in the coming days.
Will the closure be extended until late November?
Polymarket traders expect the government shutdown to last until mid-to-late November. Traders believe there is a 56% chance that this situation will continue beyond November 16th.
The government shutdown delayed major economic reports and created uncertainty for investors and policymakers. If the shutdown continues for a longer period of time, the situation may worsen and the strain on the economy will increase further.
Economists warn of lasting damage
Analysts estimate this is costing the economy between $10 billion and $30 billion each week, Bloomberg reports. Unlike past shutdowns, where the effects were mostly temporary, this one could cause even more damage. With high inflation, job insecurity and cuts to food aid, experts fear the impact extends far beyond unpaid civil servants.
Economists have warned that if the shutdown extends beyond Thanksgiving, it could further hurt consumer confidence and spending during the crucial holiday shopping season.
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett also said the impact turned out to be much more severe than expected.
The shutdown has also affected the crypto market, delaying key developments such as the approval of ETFs and progress on market structure legislation. Geopolitical tensions are adding further pressure, with President Trump’s tariff threats against China triggering a major liquidation event.
However, the market has recently shown signs of recovery. The current global cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.55 trillion, up 2.7% in the past 24 hours.
What’s next for the crypto market?
Analyst Alex Krueger shares his outlook for risk assets as we head into the end of the year.
He noted that while the market is likely to remain cautious until the shutdown ends, he expects a bullish rebound, with Bitcoin potentially rising more than 5% in just 48 hours. The December Fed meeting could be hawkish, as most Fed officials currently support a pause. But he also noted that the Fed’s stance could change as new data is released. The possibility that a new Fed chair will be named before the next meeting could also boost the market.
He also warned that while the December tax cut sell-off could weigh on crypto prices, the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could be a major bullish trigger if it goes against President Trump.
Looking ahead, he expects the first half of 2026 to be “very bullish” due to accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.
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