Important points:
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Bitcoin’s bearish MACD cross and candlestick on the 3-week chart indicates the top of the cycle.
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Market analysts suggest that being 558 days away from the 2024 halving indicates that the top of Bitcoin’s bullish cycle is imminent.
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Other analysts say the BTC price still has room to rise by $180,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) price fell 3% on Thursday, leaving it 13% below its all-time high of $126,000 on October 6th. Some traders have suggested that this level may have been a cycle high for BTC.
Bitcoin technicals suggest “the top is in”
Bitcoin price action appears to have confirmed a “bearish MACD crossover,” according to one crypto analyst, suggesting that this could signal the end of the BTC bull run based on historical patterns.
Related: Fed hints at ‘end of QT’: what does it mean for Bitcoin price?
“Bitcoin’s 3-week chart has a pending bearish MACD crossover,” analyst Jesse Olson said in an X-Post on Wednesday, adding:
“The histogram also shows a long-term bearish divergence.”
As shown in the chart below, a crossover is confirmed when the Moving Average Convergence Index (MACD) (blue wave), a technical indicator used by traders to identify trend changes and momentum changes, falls below the signal line (orange wave).
Note that the last two times the MACD sent this bearish signal were at the height of bullish cycles in 2017 and 2021, marking Bitcoin’s highest price.
The same three-week chart shows the emergence of a “bearish engulfing candle” similar to those seen at the peak of the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles.
Jesse Olson said in a separate post Thursday that these and “several other warnings suggest the top is in.”
These include a drop in network activity indicating a reduction in on-chain demand. Nansen data revealed that the number of daily active addresses on the Bitcoin network decreased by 30% in October, from 632,915 to 447,225.
A decline in the number of daily active addresses indicates a decline in network engagement and user demand, and is often preceded by a price correction or long-term consolidation.
Bitcoin’s impending cycle peak
Mr. Crypto, an anonymous trader and investor, supported the cycle-top hypothesis, claiming that Bitcoin has reached a “historical peak-out” point based on the four-year halving cycle.
Looking back at past Bitcoin halvings in 2012 and 2016, we can certainly see a similar trend. The price gradually gains momentum and typically peaks 518-580 days after the halving, as shown in the chart below.
558 days have passed since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the BTC market is now within +40 days of the previous 518-580 day peak window.
“We are right at the time of Bitcoin’s historical peak out,” Mr. Crypto said in a post by X, asking:
“Maybe this time will be different?”
Fellow analyst Cryptobird said there may only be days left in Bitcoin’s price expansion cycle, especially if it follows historical patterns based on past halvings.
CryptoBird said in its latest Bitcoin analysis that Bitcoin is “consolidating before exploding, with the top window open.”
Waiting room for the final leg.
BTC is range-bound at $112,000, ETFs are rising, and concerns are waning. It solidifies before exploding, and the window at the top is open.
I’m not ready for what’s about to happen.
(Thread)🧵 pic.twitter.com/g35tkf9tG2
— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) October 29, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, some analysts, such as BitMEX’s Arthur Hayes, have said that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over, arguing that the price is now being driven by monetary policy and liquidity rather than a halving.
Others see the impact of the halving fading, arguing that a positive interest rate cycle, institutional adoption through ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies, and maturation as a mainstream asset could lead to further gains for Bitcoin in 2026.
Is the Bitcoin bull market really over?
Aside from those who argue that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle no longer determines the duration of a bull market, others believe that BTC still has room to rise based on technical indicators.
Analyst Jere said Bitcoin “has formed a low and the range remains intact,” referring to Bitcoin’s price action on the daily time frame.
“Once we get that $116,000 area back, the fun can start again.”
Fellow analyst Maggs said Bitcoin is trading within a “bullish megaphone pattern” that has historically led to upside breakouts.
“A massive breakout is underway.”
#bitcoin – Every bullish pattern in BTC has led to an upside breakout in the past.
Currently, the price is forming a bullish megaphone pattern.
Massive breakout is loading. pic.twitter.com/45z3WvRwKa
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 30, 2025
As reported by Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin Mayer multiple indicates that BTC is still close to “oversold” at current levels, suggesting that the $180,000 target is still valid.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.