Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s next big rally may already have an expiration date set.
Important points
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen expects Bitcoin to peak in late 2025, mirroring past election year cycles.
- Bitcoin’s dominance of nearly 66% indicates consolidation and bull market maturation.
- Ethereum and Solana could continue to rise until 2025 before a correction in 2026.
- Fed policy could determine when the next bullish phase returns after a recession.
According to The world’s largest digital asset could reach its cycle peak towards the end of 2025, before dramatically cooling down in the following year, according to Benjamin Cowen, a prominent crypto market analyst.
Cowen’s reasoning is based on more than intuition – he argues that Bitcoin’s History moves into a four-year rhythm, but it rarely fails. He noted that peaks tend to occur after U.S. presidential elections, with significant highs seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. If that rhythm continues, 2025 will be the next phase of Bitcoin’s long-term performance.
“The ensuing mid-years tend to bring about a reset,” Cowen explained, pointing to 2014, 2018 and 2022 as textbook post-peak periods when the market retreated to build new footing.
Signals suggesting an aging rally
Although price trends remain strong, Cowen believes subtle indicators are warning. The Bitcoin Dominance Index, which tracks Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market, has risen to about 66%, indicating that money is being concentrated around safety rather than risk. Historically, that was the market’s way of preparing for reduced liquidity.
He also cited the 50-week moving average, which is hovering around $100,000, as an important structural point. He said a break below that line would likely confirm the end of the bullish phase. “We’re seeing increased dominance and slowing momentum. These are early signs that the enthusiasm is waning,” he said.
Quiet hype, slower cycles
But this time, the speculative mania that usually defines Bitcoin’s peaks appears to be absent. Cowen called it one of the quietest near-high markets he’s ever seen, with search trends and social media activity far behind previous cycles.
For him, it’s not necessarily a sign of weakness. Rather, it may reflect a mature market, one defined by declining returns and long, stable cycles. “The flashy tops of the past may be giving way to something more subtle,” he suggested.
Ethereum and Solana ride the same wave
Cowen expects Ethereum (Ethereum) will join the final stages of the bull market, potentially reaching $5,000-$7,000, before experiencing its own correction as the overall market subsides.
He compared Solana (SOL) to Ethereum’s movements in previous cycles. In other words, it’s a rapidly growing Layer 1 network with momentum that could extend into 2025 before slowing down. “Solana feels like the Ethereum of 2017,” he said. “It’s exploding now, but it’s going to reset later.”
Macro forces remain in control
Beyond the internal dynamics of cryptocurrencies, Cowen argued that Federal Reserve policy remains the invisible hand guiding next actions. He sees limited scope for speculative assets to sustain parabolic growth due to high interest rates and tight liquidity.
But a change in the Fed’s tone could reopen the capital floodgates, perhaps starting in 2026. “Monetary easing tends to restart the engine, but until then markets need to digest the excesses,” he said.
Long-term vision remains bullish
Cowen may be cautious about 2026, but he remains confident about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. If adoption and network effects follow historical trends, he believes assets could eventually reach $1 million by 2041.
“The cycle repeats because human actions repeat,” he said. “What changes is the tempo, and learning that rhythm is the key to surviving music.”
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any particular investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Costa joined the team in 2021 and quickly established himself with his thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication and analytical thinking. In addition to covering a wide range of current events, he also writes excellent reviews, PR articles, and educational materials. His articles have also been quoted by other news agencies.