Ethereum Price Falls 25% But On-Chain Data and Institutional Staking Signal Q4 Recovery Potential

Ethereum’s price fell nearly 25% this quarter, hitting a low around $3,099 amid the overall market downturn and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, before stabilizing around $3,300.

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According to Lookonchain data, three new wallets have withdrawn 4,920 ETH (worth $16.25 million) from Tornado Cash, a move that coincides with a 13% weekly price drop.

Analysts have linked this pattern to large-scale repositioning by whales, with some addresses previously linked to HEX founder Richard Hart, who allegedly transferred more than 162,000 ETH ($619 million) to Tornado Cash earlier this year.

Despite the drop, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 21/100 “extreme fear,” a sentiment level that historically coincides with market bottoms. Analysts at Santiment observed a sharp turn in trader sentiment, noting that bullish comments on ETH outnumbered bearish posts by nearly 3 to 1.

Ethereum ETH EHTUSD

ETH's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD chart on Tradingview

Institutional staking and ETF inflows bring signs of strength

Institutional data paint a more resilient picture. Sharplink, a Nasdaq-listed company, has generated $100 million in annualized yield through Ethereum staking after accumulating 859,853 ETH worth $2.9 billion.

The company’s success has fueled a new “productive ETH” narrative that positions Ethereum as a yield-producing treasury asset rather than a speculative one.

Market strategist Kyle Readhead described Sharplink’s yield as “a $100 million+ compounding income stream that works in all market conditions,” predicting Ethereum’s staking advantages over Bitcoin’s static balance sheet model.

On-chain analysts expect companies like Bitmine, JPMorgan, and other institutional investors to follow similar strategies after the SEC approved an ETH staking ETF earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the US Spot ETH ETF recorded an inflow of $12.5 million on November 6th, ending a six-day streak of outflows, and total assets under management rose to $21.75 billion, about 5.4% of the Ethereum market price.

Technical indicators suggest Ethereum price could rebound towards $3,900-$5,000

From a technical perspective, Ethereum price is hovering around the $3,200 to $3,350 support range, which many analysts, including Michael van de Poppe, refer to as a “key accumulation area.” Momentum indicators such as RSI (46) and MACD (negative but flat) indicate bearish exhaustion.

Looking ahead, traders are keeping an eye on the upcoming Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 3, 2025, which introduces PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) to improve data throughput and scalability.

If ETH regains resistance at $3,900, analysts predict a recovery path towards $5,000 by the end of the year, supported by a decline in exchange supply and a recovery in institutional demand.

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As staking yields and ETF inflows strengthen Ethereum’s fundamentals, market participants increasingly see the current correction as a potential springboard for a fourth-quarter rally rather than a prolonged slump.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview

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