Important points:
BNB (BNB) has failed to extend its record rally and has faced rejections near the $1,350 level twice in the past week, a pattern that increases the likelihood of a pullback in October.
Double top setting increases BNB adjustment risk by 30%
The daily chart of BNB reveals a typical double top formation around the $1,350 to $1,375 area, suggesting potential trend exhaustion after a 95% year-to-date rally.
The two peaks, shown below as Top 1 and Top 2, indicate a failed breakout attempt, with neckline support located near $1,100. A decisive close below this neckline could confirm a double top pattern.
In that case, BNB faces the risk of falling to the maximum height of the pattern, resulting in a downside price target of around $835. This means a correction of about 30% from current levels by the end of October or early November.
Momentum indicators such as the Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) are showing caution, with the RSI breaking out of overbought territory above 70 and entering a correction phase.
Also, BNB’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line shows a bearish crossover. This further indicates that the market’s buying power is waning, and bearish momentum could strengthen if BNB breaks below the $1,100 support.
Binance’s $21.75 billion outflow increases risk for BNB
According to data resource Coinglass, Binance has witnessed a record $21.75 billion in user withdrawals from centralized exchanges in the past week, including $4.1 billion in intra-day outflows.
The outflow came after Friday’s liquidation crisis when Binance’s internal oracle mispriced a key collateral asset, triggering a cascade of margin calls.
As of Wednesday, Binance’s daily outflows have decreased, but the seven-day balance is still down $3.69 billion.
Some analysts now suspect that the collapse of the $20 billion liquidation event was an attack targeting Binance’s unified account margin system.
Dr. Martin Heasboek, Uphold’s head of research, said in a post on Monday that attackers exploited a flaw in Binance’s margin system, causing losses of between $500 million and $1 billion.
He named the event “Luna 2.”
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The accusation coincides with BNB’s rejection in the $1,350-$1,375 region on Monday, reflecting wavering confidence despite Binance’s announcement of a $400 million bailout pledge.
There is still hope for BNB bulls
BNB is still trading above key exponential moving average (EMA) supports, including the 20-day EMA (green wave) near $1,155 and the 50-day EMA (red wave) near $1,042.
A bounce off these EMAs and establishment as new support could invalidate the double top pattern. In this case, the price discovery zone is just above the $1,350 level, which remains in place in October.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.