Inflation data and Treasury issuance will once again weigh on Bitcoin due to the Senate-backed stopgap for reopening the US government.
The chamber introduced a continuing resolution to fund the agency through January 30, 2026, and the bill, which will be sent back to the House for approval, would restart furloughed statistical agencies and normalize auction operations.
The deal will restart the flow of official data that underpins interest rate forecasts and the value of the dollar after a 41-day shutdown, Time reported.
The actual vehicle is HR 5371 (Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act of 2026) on Congress.gov. This article outlines the scope and mechanics typical of short-term extensions that maintain prior-year funding levels while Congress works toward full-year spending.
Why data resumption is important for Bitcoin liquidity
For cryptocurrencies, the restart is important as it restores the macro data pipeline, returns Treasury supply to a predictable pace, and provides clarity on the near-term path for real rates, which will impact Bitcoin risk appetite and spot ETF flows.
During the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis suspended some releases. The Labor Department was preparing to suspend large-scale print production if the shutdown dragged on.
On the short-term calendar, October CPI will be released on Thursday, November 13th at 8:30 a.m. ET, along with real earnings. The PPI will be released on November 14th, and the import and export price index will be released on November 18th.
These announcements reset the market’s data dependence, shifting bets on interest rates and the dollar back toward inflation and labor inputs rather than fiscal headlines. In the case of Bitcoin, the hinge remains the 10-year real yield.
Digesting macro noise as Bitcoin price relies on traditional plumbing
The implied real yield on 10-year TIPS is 1.83%, above its mid-year level. Strong CPI trends tend to ease real yields and financial conditions, supporting risk assets and coinciding with narrowing ETF spreads and increasing depth in the crypto secondary market.
US Treasury supply entered the week on a stable plan. The quarterly repayments will keep the coupon size at $125 billion for the three-year, 10-year and 30-year notes, raising about $26.8 billion in new funding. Auction days are Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Officials plan to fix coupon rates for several quarters, use notes and cash management notes for flexibility, and continue share buybacks to support market functioning, according to the Treasury Department’s refund statement.
This path limits the potential for near-term term premium shocks as businesses reopen, and CPI remains the primary driver of duration.
With the nominal 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.1% in early November and the CPI back on track, the interaction between issuance and data will likely set the tone for interest rates through the weekend.
To pay for the plumbing work, the Treasury Department’s General Account has closed on approximately $943 billion. According to YCharts, November 7th is up compared to 2024. A cushion will emerge as auctions normalize. A high TGA rise could be a headwind for bank reserves, while a draw or a slow rebuild could be a quiet tailwind for risks.
Because of the stability of coupons, paper money remains the means of cash management. If the reopening creates room for a gradual TGA draw until the end of the month, liquidity could be marginally positive, especially if this coincides with the easing in real yields following the CPI announcement.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain another variable. Global crypto ETFs brought in record amounts in early October as Bitcoin soared to new highs, but activity has slowed since then, with U.S. funds experiencing net outflows into early November.
According to Kaiko data, order book depth will improve significantly from 2022 to 2023, and slippage will decrease as ticket size increases.
Deeper books amplify macro-driven movements, as incremental flows are conveyed more cleanly, especially when ETF creations and redemptions align with inter-asset movements in interest rates and the dollar.
Three macro paths for Bitcoin liquidity as CPI recovers
Once your calendar is unlocked by CR, you’ll narrow it down to three passes over the next 1-2 weeks. If the CPI reaches below consensus and redemptions are completed without friction, the real 10-year yield could trend towards the 1.6-1.7% range, the dollar could weaken, and the US spot Bitcoin ETF could pivot to moderate net inflows.
High-frequency allocators tend to re-engage when the data path is visible, and slow TGA restructuring supports pure liquidity. If the CPI rises and the Treasury turns to paper money to refinance, real yields could rise above 1.9%, ETF outflows could resume, and cryptocurrencies could trade defensively with stronger betas to real yields.
Process noise can also result if House passage is wobbly or if CPI arrives in an unusual state related to the publication backlog, which can disrupt the flow. At the same time, the desk monitors the issuance calendar and repurchase schedule for signaling.
For readers who are tracking how things work, the following publication details for this week’s refunds have been published and serve as a clear reference of supply to CPI.
| safety | size | new funding |
|---|---|---|
| 3 year bond | $58 billion | Total $26.8 billion |
| 10 year bond | $42 billion | |
| 30 year bond | 25 billion dollars |
According to the Ministry of Finance, the fixed stance for several quarters covers these sizes, but it should be noted that the authorities are assessing future increases as necessary. This message limits near-term uncertainty around the coupon period, which puts CPI at the center of this week’s rate hike.
With real yields still rising, the crypto tape is bracing for an either-or reaction caused by inflation surprises and the direction of the dollar.