Francisco Rodrigues (always ET unless otherwise indicated)
Bitcoin It may be in a critical phase as macro and cryptographic specific power converges.
Traditional market metrics such as US government shutdowns and employment reports have led traders to leaning towards alternative assets, particularly Bitcoin and gold. BTC rose to $120,000 after raising 9% this week, while gold rose 2.9% to touch $3,900.
The shutdown dumped more than 90% of the SEC staff and left CFTC on the SKELETON crew. Investors responded to closed markets as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to 25 bps later this month, and sees it as almost certain about an unexpected decline in private US wages and delays in other key economic data.
“Even if gold and stocks recorded strong profits, traders lacked the immediate catalyst proven by their suppressed commitments after the FOMC meeting. However, as we move into the rate-cut cycle, the broader trend remains high.”
Low interest rates make risky assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive, which comes in a month of high emotion given their historical performance.
“October has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, suggesting this year may not be an exception..“Gadi Chait of Xapo Bank issued an email statement.
On-chain data backs up it. According to Cryptoquant, which is driven primarily by ETFs and whales, apparent demand for Bitcoin has increased by around 62,000 BTC since July. Due to context, ETF holdings skyrocketed 71% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
On top of that, the market from crypto is growing.
“In the past month, Defi’s share of trading activities has risen significantly, expanding both the market and our opportunities,” Dydx Labs president Eddchan told Coindesk.
“The big driving force behind this shift is the new energy and participation we see from Asia. We believe Defi is beginning to fulfill its long-standing promises, and the pace of market adoption is accelerating accordingly.”
Looking ahead, the crypto market is anticipating other potential catalysts. There are some altcoin ETF decisions, including Solana and XRP, which could be delayed by shutdown, and the slowly approaching Fusaka upgrades of Ethereum. Keep alerts!
What to see
For a list of more comprehensive events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto week ahead.
- Crypto
- October 3: Sol Treasury Firm Brera Holdings will begin trading under Nasdaq’s new ticker SLMT, reflecting the imminent name change to Solmate.
- Macros
- October 3rd 9am: S&P Global Brazil September PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.3), Services (Prev. 49.3).
- October 3rd 9:30am: S&P Global Canada September PMI. Composite (Prev. 48.4), Services (Prev. 48.6).
- October 3rd at 9:45am: S&P Global US September PMI (final). Composite est. 53.6, Services Est. 53.9.
- October 3rd 10am: US ISM September Service PMI EST. 51.7.
- October 3, 1:40pm: Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech in Philadelphia about the “US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework.”
- Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)
Token Event
For a list of more comprehensive events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto week ahead.
- Governance votes and phone calls
- Unlock
- October 3: Unlocking 1.26% of distribution supply worth $17.56 million (IMX).
- Token launch
- October 3: EVAA protocol (EVAA) listed in Binance Alpha, MEXC, etc.
meeting
For a list of more comprehensive events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto week ahead.
Token talk
Oliver Night
- The crypto market rose on Friday, with tokens, including ETH, SOL and XRP all climbing over 2%, while small altcoins like ETHFI and Cake climbing 25%.
- The relative strength reached $120,000 as Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, hit $120,000 on Thursday, surpassing its August record high of $124,000.
- Still, unlike previous forays over $120,000, the move is pretty muted. In contrast to the surge in volatility, prices remain in a tight range.
- This usually works well when Bitcoin integrates, as it allows capital to spin from Bitcoin to more speculative bets.
- However, the upward shift was not particularly friendly to some tokens. a rapid leverage rewind gave a severe 43% reduction.
- As reported on Thursday’s Daybook, Plasma’s XPL token continues to stomp amid speculation about whether market makers are shorting on behalf of their founding team.
Positioning of derivatives
- The BTC futures market is strong and bullish, holding its highest ever profit of over $32 billion. The three-month annual base has also risen, approaching 8%.
- However, there is a significant divergence in funding rates. Deribit’s rate is very high at 25%, but other exchanges like Bybit show more neutral funding, suggesting potential concentrations of aggressive long positions in certain regions.
- The BTC options market shows a neutral state. The 24-hour put-call volume is still slightly colder at 52.25%, but this has been down from the previous day, indicating the potential moderation of a bullish conviction.
- At the same time, the 25 Delta Skew in a week is currently inherently flat at 0.33%, indicating balanced and implicit volatility in both put and call.
- This combination of metrics suggests a market that has settled into a more balanced and hesitant phase after a stronger bullish sentiment.
- Coinglass data shows a $380 million liquidation in a 24-hour liquidation, split between 35-65 long and shorts. The Binance Squiration Heatmap shows $121,300 as the core liquidation level to monitor in the event of price increases.
Market movements
- BTC fell 0.3% from 4pm on Thursday, $120,378.11 (24 hours: +1.44%)
- ETH is down 0.4% at $4,476.43 (24 hours: +2.05%)
- Coindesk 20 is down 0.55% at 4,297.29 (24 hours: +1.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.87%
- The BTC funding rate is 0.0023% (2.5185% per year) for Kucon
- DXY has not changed at 97.76
- Gold futures increased 0.39% to $3,883.00
- Silver futures are up 1.87% at $47.24
- Nikkei 225 closed 1.85% at 45,769.50
- Hang Seng fell 0.54% at 27,140.92
- FTSE is up 0.63% at 9,486.91
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.16% at 5,654.70
- DJIA rose 0.17% on Thursday at 46,519.72
- S&P 500 closed 0.06% at 6,715.35
- NASDAQ Composite rose 0.39% to 22,844.05
- S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.18% at 30,160.59
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.42% at 2,893.79
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is down 0.2 bps at 4.088%
- E-Mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.27% at 6,785.25
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.28% at 25,180.75
- The e-mini dow Jones Industrial Average Index is up 0.28% at 46,937.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC advantage: 58.79% (unchanged)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03722 (unchanged)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 1,059 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $50.69
- Total Fee: 4.14 BTC/$495,121
- CME Futures Open Interest: 141,485 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.2 oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.81%
Technical Analysis
- Ether returns to its weekly range after tapping the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart and is currently trading at the $4,500 level.
- Prices are traded more than anything else than daily keemouth, but are currently within the bearish daily order block, an area of interest for potential pullbacks.
- The Bulls will want to see a break above this level and then succeed in a successful retest to target highs in the range and ultimately the all-time high.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed Thursday at $372.07 (+7.48%), +0.36% at $373.42
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $149.72 (+16.04%), closed at -0.68% at $148.70
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $36.52 (+1.93%), closed at $36.80 at +0.77%
- Bullish (BLSH): $67.91 (+11.68%), closed at -0.6% at $67.50
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $18.79 (+0.97%), $18.95 at +0.85%
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $19.25 (+1.69%), +0.73% at $19.39 at +0.73%
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $18.1 (+0.72%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $15.14 (+3.77%), closed at +1.52% at $15.37
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $46.49 (+3.15%), +0.56% at $46.75 at +0.56%
- Exodus Movement (Exod): $30.86 (+9.01%), closed at $30.99 at +0.42%
Cryptocurrency company
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $352.33 (+4.11%) and remains unchanged in front of the market
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): $31.36 (+1.06%), closed at -0.19% at $31.30
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $18.09 (+4.15%), closed at $18.28 at +1.05%
- upexi(upxi): $7.29 (+11.64%), +0.96% at $7.36
- Lite Strategy (Lits): Closed at $2.68 (+4.69%)
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $627.2 million
- Cumulative net flow: $59.03 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 132 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $307.1 million
- Cumulative net flow: $14.2 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 664 million
Source: Farside Investors