Citigroup has forecast its Stablecoin market forecast to $1.9 trillion by 2030, but a report issued on September 25 warned that adoption of the scheme will remain at just 0.5 on a 0-10 scale.
The banking giant raised a base case forecast from $1.6 trillion in its April 2025 forecast, citing the acceleration momentum due to regulatory clarity and increased integration of payment networks. The bull case scenario reached between $3.7 trillion and $4 trillion.
“We’re committed to providing a range of services to our customers,” said David Cunningham, Head of City Services’ Digital Asset Strategy and Partnerships.
“Stablecoin issue volume has increased by 40% this year as executive orders, genius acts and key platforms remove friction.”
The revised forecast is based on three major drivers. First, substitution of partial deposits in the US and overseas accounts for 45% of the basic cases, with Citi moving 2.5% of US bank deposits in 2030 to Stubcoin.
Second, the ongoing expansion of the crypto market will drive 40% of growth through a 20% increase in annual issuance. Third, 15% comes from banknote substitutions, particularly from 10% of US currency holdings overseas and 2.5% of domestic banknotes.
The current Stablecoin Supply reached $292 billion as of September 25th, up from $224 billion at the beginning of the year. Transaction volumes approach $1 trillion per month on a adjusted basis, almost double the annual level.
However, corporate enthusiasm slows down predictions. Catherine Gu, head of Visa’s institutional client solutions, characterized the institutional absurd adoption at “presumably 0.5 on a scale of 0-10”, pointing to limited serious interest across banks and asset managers.
The report also found that most mainstream companies remain “curious” rather than enthusiastic about stablecoins. Large companies already have favorable banking conditions and faster payments, reducing Stablecoin’s appeal for high-value transactions.
Citi believes bank tokens, including tokenized deposits and deposit tokens, could potentially earn a larger volume of transactions than stubcoin by 2030, potentially exceeding $100 trillion per year.
These bank-issued token equipment offer easy integration of familiar regulatory frameworks with existing financial systems.
The challenges of the Stablecoin ecosystem identified in the report include fragmentation across blockchains, privacy concerns regarding public networks, and uncertainty regarding accounting.
Without the recognition equivalent to cash under IAS7, Stablecoins are not attractive to corporate finance personnel.
The report concluded that despite regulatory advances, including passing the Genius Act and establishing an international framework in Hong Kong and the UAE, institutional adoption requires addressing issues of interoperability, scalability and trust that currently limits enterprise-scale deployment.