Key takeout
What sparked Ondo’s concern?
The 26.28 million whale deposits, including $6.19 million in Arthur Hayes’ wallet, have heightened fear of strong exchange-driven selling pressure.
What does Ondo’s outlook metric signal?
Ondo’s MVRV Z score of -0.77 indicates underwater holders, but above NVT ratio, vulnerable demand and valuation risks are highlighted.
ONDO Finance [ONDO] The Gnosis Safe Proxy Wallet faced severe scrutiny after depositing $24.28 million tokens on the exchange within just 10 hours.
Of this, $6.57 million worth of $6.19 million was sent directly to Arthur Hayes’ Buybit Wallet. Chain data showed that his wallet has accumulated 3,688 million, worth $37.56 million over the past month.
Such a move increases supply pressure and raises concerns about potential divestitures.
Historically, large influx into centralized exchanges is often consistent with future volatility, and Ondo’s situation reflects a similar setup.
Can Ondo protect support or is resistance dominant?
Ondo’s price action showed a recurring struggle between support and resistance. After forming a cup and handle pattern earlier this year, the token attempted several breakouts.
However, the price could not be held beyond the resistance of the descending channel, which was close to $1.15. The latest action tested support at $0.82-0.85 before rebounding to $0.93.
Such a swing showed continued indecisiveness between buyers and sellers.
Even with rebounds, sustained inflows into exchanges could limit the momentum of the upward movement and continue to put support under pressure.
Source: TradingView
MVRV suggests that the holder is underwater
Santiment data showed Ondo’s MVRV Z -Score at -0.77. This indicates that most holders are underwater and limit the incentives they accumulate.
Historically, such phases lead to lower purchasing pressures, as few traders often view the market as attractive.
Furthermore, the more exchanges are required, which increases the possibility of additional sales pressure.
Source: Santiment
Increased NVT ratio stimulates warning signals
Ondo’s NVT ratio rose above 25, showing a higher rating compared to transaction activity. For context,The pike of this metric often matches the overheated conditions.
And of course, this increases the possibility of short-term fixes.
Despite several attempts to recover price action, valuation risks were emotionally heavy.
Importantly, the gap between activity and assessment is that organic demand is not yet consistent with the value of the network, keeping sentiment vulnerable.
Source: Santiment
In summary, Ondo noticed that whale deposits are increasing pressure as exchange supply and assessment metrics amplify flash warnings.
While temporary rebounds emerged, repeated rejections of resistance and weak transaction dynamics promoted uncertainty.
A critical hold with $0.85 support could set a rebound, but failure could expose Ondo to a deeper drawback.