Bitcoin (BTC) will be a comeback in late September as it arrives every quarter of the month.
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BTC’s price action surprises with pushes over $112,000 at the end of each week, setting a tug of war between the bull and the bear.
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The liquidity game is back, but observers warn of the move to liquidate the next slower long.
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U.S. employment data form the highlight of this week’s macro amid continuing pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
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Gold set a fresh, top-high to start the week and finally called for Bitcoin to continue.
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On-chain data shows that speculators are low and panic keeping BTC in BTC, but old hands remain on top.
Bitcoin Bulls fight for $112,000 management
Although it seemed very unlikely these days, Bitcoin has closed its weekly candles more than its major price levels.
After threatening the new September low of less than $109,000, BTC/USD made a last-minute rebound and regained $112,000 in support.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm that the BTC price range is maintained in the first Asian trading session of the week.
Commenting on the latest BTC price action, market participants argue that more evidence is needed before assuming that bull markets will be fully revived.
“$BTC also had a pump like $ETH, mainly because the short positions are closed,” Crypto Investor and Antrepreneur Ted Pillows wrote in X’s post.
“For a strong Bitcoin rally, it requires a closure of over $113,500 every day. Otherwise, BTC will revisit that low again.”
Popular trader Roman shared that sentiment and hoped that prices would shrink between the upper and lower boundaries of the narrow trading range.
“We’re just going to have a retest and resistance right now, so unless we’re blown away in a lot, we’re hoping for some ping pon between here and 108K,” he summed up, demanding that the Bulls seize $118,000.
Volatility was expected as it approached within 48 hours each month and quarterly.
Coinglass data shows that at $112,000, BTC/USD locked in 3% profit for September, with around 4.4% in the third quarter.
These figures represent average performance for Bitcoin, with both September and the third quarter being highly variable historically.
“We’re closing a relatively flat quarter with little volatility in the $BTC. This is not normal for the third quarter, as you can see,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote about the data in Monday’s X-Post.
“It’s the worst quarter on average, with an average increase of 6%, ‘only’ throughout history. So we are exactly the same as Q2. ”
Daan Crypto reversed the “very exciting” Q4 based on past performance.
“BTC is very reliable, so in my opinion it makes more sense to look at it. In particular, it has been behind the likes of $ Gold & Stocks and the like over the past few weeks,” he concluded.
Long clearing on radar when new CME gaps are displayed
Bitcoin returned overnight over $112,000, causing a considerable conversion of liquidity in the exchange order book.
Coinglass data shows how the price sliced the short positions in the second half, and then large players add more liquidity of around $113,000.
Within the 24 hours leading up to the time of writing, the total crypto liquidation amounted to $350 million, while the shorts totaled $260 million.
Commenting on the purchase order setup, market commentators are currently hoping to determine where BTC prices are heading next, with liquidity acting as a “magnet” both up and down.
“I like the market sentiment is bearish after the fix during the HTF uptrend,” popular trader Crypnuevo wrote in part of Sunday’s X-thread.
“I think that’s true – drops below $100k seem to be a market consensus for now, so I’m leaning even further towards recovering from here and seizing liquidity at $106.9K.”
Current data suggests that travel below $107,000 will liquidate the huge $5 billion long.
This and incoming calls continue to provide a careful basis among some market participants.
These include popular trader Kira who has focused on the new weekend “gaps” that appear in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures in its own right.
“When we reevaluate the price action, we pumped out a CME open. These specific gaps can usually take days or a week,” he said Monday.
“We believe that because both monthly and quarterly shut down, they’re building long liquidity before they take weekend lows.”
Our employment data comes amid more pressure on Federal Reserve Powell
The familiar sight will greet Crypto and Risk-Asset Traders this week as US employment data and Federal Reserve officials take the centre stage.
Various high-ranking names comment on the US economic outlook amid a new divide in attitudes towards interest reductions.
These cuts represent policy easing and suggest liquidity flowing into risky assets, which is what future traders would like to see in the future.
As reported by the Cointelegraph, members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are not unanimous regarding the reductions and the pace of implementation.
In his own speech last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to balance Hawkish and Devish’s language, although already pressured by President Donald Trump to speed up policy easing.
“In recent months, it has been revealed that the balance of risk has changed and has encouraged policy stances to get closer to neutral at last week’s meeting,” he said after the FOMC agreed to a 0.25% cut at its September meeting.
Meanwhile, Trump and others continue to demand that the Fed take more dramatic action. In a now-deleted post about Truth Social over the weekend, Trump posted his cartoon launching Powell, calling for his resignation throughout 2025.
“If Jerome wasn’t ‘too late’ Powell, we’re now at 2% and we’re in the process of balancing our budget,” says some of the further post.
“The good news is that we are empowering through his incompetence. And we are soon better as a nation than we have done before!”
Private and public sector employment data and early unemployment claims are paid throughout the week to form a major potential volatility catalyst.
Gold will destroy $3,800 when the week begins
This week may have started with a modest bailout for the Bitcoin Bulls, but Gold is already stealing the show again.
Xau/USD hit a fresh all-time high on Monday, delivering $3,800 per ounce for the first time in history, delivering $3,800 per ounce amid the US dollar strength.
The latest moves already repeat the pattern in the minds of all Bitcoin traders this quarter. Gold exceeds Bitcoin.
With its latest regular newsletter, Macro Monday, Market Insights Resource Reflexivity Research attracted attention for its weakening of the Bitcoin/Gold ratio. He said this “indicates gold preference over Bitcoin as a hedge.”
Nevertheless, proponents argue that BTC’s price strength can copy gold after legal delays, thus maintaining the historical trend.
Andre Dragosch, European Research Director at Crypto Asset Manager, has linked the current situation to a variety of macroeconomic phenomena.
“Why is Bitcoin behind in 2025? Because gold is sensitive to monetary policy and the US dollar, while Bitcoin is sensitive to global growth expectations,” he told X Followers on Monday.
“So, while Gold’s price action already reflects strong financial easing, Bitcoin price action still reflects weak growth expectations.”
Dragosch said just as growth expectations follow monetary policy changes in one lag, Bitcoin will also follow gold’s footsteps at “significant gatherings.”
Bitcoin speculators panic at low locality
Regarding Bitcoiner’s recent response to BTC price dips, a new analysis reveals the behavior of the textbook market.
Related: The hidden power behind the price of Bitcoin and Ether: the effectiveness of options
The difference between long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) holders is noteworthy, the latter being sold while the “old hand” survives the storm.
In one of the “QuickTake” blog posts on Monday, Onchain Analytics Platform Cryptoquant uses classic on-chain metrics to show that for investors this dip is the same as the others.
“We saw the same setup in late 2024. It kept the conviction getting stronger, but before the massive rebounds it got stronger,” contributor Woo Min Kyu summed.
“Historically, these low-latio zones often mark the later stages of revisions, in line with the bottom of the price.”
In this post, I used a derivative of the Used Production Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures the degree to which Onchain moves it does in profit or loss. The “ratio” of LTH and STH SOPR confirms that new investors responded to DIP by selling at loss.
“Short-term pain, long-term benefits,” concluded Cryptoquant.
As reported by Cointelegraph, what STH entities have had ringed for up to six months – as STH entities have always been sensitive to BTC price volatility, especially when the market exceeds the total cost base.
The average STH cost base for each encrypted data is currently around $109,800.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.