Important points:
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The expansion of Bitcoin’s Wave III could push the price towards $200,000 to $240,000.
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Despite flat futures market activity in the fourth quarter, the long-term structure remains bullish.
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A recovery in the US economy and risk-on sentiment could drive Bitcoin’s next rally.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s long-term price structure is showing new strength as analysts predict the next phase of its parabolic expansion. Bitcoin has once again recovered from its 40-week simple moving average (SMA), according to market analyst Gerd van Lagen.
Van Lagen said the revised phase of the second wave appeared to be nearing completion, and the expansion of the third wave was just around the corner. Once this pattern is completed, BTC price could rise to between $200,000 and $240,000 in the coming months.
Van Lagen’s “staircase” Elliott Wave model suggests that Bitcoin forms a solid foundation before a major breakout. Similar conditions preceded rallies in 2019 and 2023, suggesting that the current consolidation could be the starting point for the next parabolic rally.
Cryptocurrency trader Jere agreed, saying that Bitcoin continues to face resistance near the midpoint of its long-term upward price channel. Jelle added that once this level is cleared, the upper end of the channel near $350,000 suggests strong upside potential.
Meanwhile, macroeconomic researcher Sminston With explained that broader economic conditions could soon favor risk assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a measure of business activity, has been below 50 for nearly three years, marking the longest economic slowdown since records began in 1948, Wiss said. Historically, such long periods of economic downturn are followed by strong recoveries as the business cycle recovers.
Wiz argues that this rebound, or “mean reversion,” often moves investors back into riskier assets, setting the stage for an impending risk-on environment. Therefore, Bitcoin, a high-growth, speculative asset, could be one of the major beneficiaries once confidence returns to the market.
Related: Bitcoin loses $1.7 billion from ETH ETF, but whale purchases ease price impact
BTC CME Gap Closed, Liquidation Signal Suggests Recovery
While the long-term structure remains bullish, Bitcoin’s short-term price movement continues to demand confirmation. On Tuesday, BTC closed the CME gap formed over the weekend and is currently trying to establish a high above the $105,000 level.
Glassnode said futures open interest has declined following the October 10 liquidation event, and derivatives trading activity has slowed across exchanges. The average order value for BTC futures also contracted sharply, reflecting reduced participation from whales and the increasing influence of small retail trades.
However, the on-chain liquidation pattern could signal a bullish reversal. HighBlock Capital data points to a cluster of long-term liquidations observed on Nov. 4 and Nov. 7, both near $100,000, that preceded a smaller recovery, suggesting a local average reversal.
If the recent pocket of liquidations near the CME Gap leads to further rebound, Bitcoin could form a bullish reversal pivot above $105,000, reinforcing the broader uptrend narrative outlined by analysts.
Related: Bitcoin price closes CME gap, but ‘$240 million market dump’ prevents $104,000 rebound
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