Written by Francisco Rodriguez (all times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin It fell to around $107,000 after taking several days to recover from last week’s plunge that wiped out billions in leveraged positions. Analysts are now interpreting the downturn as a market reset rather than a collapse.
Glassnode’s on-chain data suggests that the recent volatility washed away excessive leverage without damaging the long-term market structure. Funding rates have plummeted, futures open interest has declined, and realized losses indicate traders are reducing risk rather than abandoning positions altogether.
However, according to Summer Hasun, senior market analyst at XS.com, Bitcoin is “trapped in a bearish structure” as it continues to form highs and lows.
“For a meaningful reversal to take hold, assets will need to recover and remain firmly above the $111,000 threshold, a level that will help rebuild the confidence needed to stabilize the trend,” Hassun wrote in an email. “Until then, any market rebound is likely to be seen as a temporary correction within a broader downtrend.”
Still, some crypto market participants see this as a buying window. BitMine, led by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, has already put $800 million into its massive ether holdings, and Blockchain.com is in talks to go public through a SPAC deal in the US.
Similarly, Ripple-backed Evernorth Holdings signed a SPAC deal to list on the Nasdaq, targeting more than $1 billion to create the “largest public XRP treasury.”
On the other hand, macro shifts are supporting risk assets. Stock prices are rising as U.S.-China trade tensions ease and U.S. regional banks become less nervous about credit risk. Gold fell more than 2% to $4,265 as capital moved back into risk.
This technical setup appears to be pushing down the entire crypto market, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index down 3.56% in the past 24 hours, with all members declining.
“The broader crypto market continues to experience a severe phase of deleveraging, with traders retreating as volatility rises and confidence in sustaining higher levels wanes,” Hassun noted.
Echoing colleague Linh Tran, he wrote, “If this pattern persists, it could lay the groundwork for a more resilient bull market recovery later on if macro and liquidity conditions improve.” Be alert!
what to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptography
- October 21, 11:35am ET: Galaxy Digital (GLXY) is hosting a Q3 2025 Post-Earnings AMA on X.
- macro
- October 21, 8:30: Canada’s September inflation rate. The headline year-over-year estimate is 2.3%, and the month-over-month estimate is -0.1%. Core YoY change (2.6% last time), Monthly change (0% last time).
- October 21: The Federal Reserve hosts the Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, DC. Watch it live.
- revenue (estimated based on FactSet data)
- October 21: Galaxy Digital (GLXY), pre-launch.
token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- GnosisDAO is voting on a proposal to provide $105,000 in funding to ProbeLab to develop detailed performance and security metrics for the Gnosis Chain P2P network. Voting ends on October 21st.
- 1inch DAO votes to remove the 5% Unicorn Power staking requirement for Fusion resolvers. Voting ends on October 21st.
- unlock
- Activate token
conference
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
token talk
Written by Oliver Knight
- South Korean exchanges Upbit and Bithumb listed a number of low-capitalization tokens on Tuesday, sparking a series of explosive bull markets.
- Upbit specifically added Trading pair of won and dollar. SynFutures is a decentralized derivatives exchange that aims to rival HyperLiquid and Aster.
- F rose more than 50% after going public before giving back some of the gains. Trading volume increased by 669% to over $200 million.
- Meanwhile, Bithumb listed ZORA and RECALL. The former rose more than 10%, while RECALL remained in line with the broader market.
- The post-listing rally bucks the trend in the altcoin market on Tuesday, with several assets facing double-digit declines. The CoinDesk 80 index has fallen 4.5% in the past 24 hours.
- Negative sentiment crept back into the market, with CAKE and ETHFI both down 10%, and ETH, BNB, and SOL all down 4%-5%.
- Traders are currently analyzing whether the weekend market rally created a low. This indicates a bearish trend and a possible reversal of the bear market following a new all-time high less than a month ago.
Positioning of derivatives
- The Bitcoin futures market has shown a steady recovery, with open interest increasing to $26.06 billion as traders gradually reopen.
- On a three-month annualized basis, it remains stable in the neutral to bullish 5%-6% range. Importantly, funding rates have returned to near-neutral or positive levels, indicating that the short-side conviction seen earlier has dissipated. OKX currently leads this change with a high positivity rate of 7.51%.
- The BTC options market is extremely bullish, fueled by rising expectations for future price movements. The term structure of implied volatility is upward sloping, indicating that the market expects volatility to increase over time.
- At the same time, the 25 delta skew has increased on all time frames and is currently above 11.86%. This high positive skew confirms that traders are paying a large premium for upside exposure, or call options, even though 24-hour put-call volume is nearly neutral and puts are favored by 49% to 51%. This reflects great confidence in sustained upside.
- According to Coinglass data, $320 million was generated in 24-hour liquidations, with a 76% to 24% split between longs and shorts. BTC ($88 million), ETH ($85 million) and Others ($33 million) were the leaders in nominal liquidations.
- Binance’s liquidation heatmap shows $112,300 as the core liquidation level to monitor in case of price increases.
market movements
- BTC fell -2.98% to $107,816.26 since Wednesday 4:00 PM ET (24h: -2.62%).
- ETH fell 3.3% to $3,867.69 to $2,607.45 (24 hours: -3.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 fell 3.6% to 3,566.33 (24 hours: -3.46%)
- Ether CESR comprehensive staking interest rate increases by 2bps to 2.84%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0035% (3.7931% p.a.) on Binance.
- DXY rose 0.27% to 98.85.
- Gold futures fell 1.91% to $4,276.00.
- Silver futures fell 5.43% to $48.60.
- The Nikkei 225 rose 0.27% to close at 49,316.06.
- The Hang Seng rose 0.65% to close at 26,027.55.
- FTSE rose 0.21% to 9,423.22.
- The Euro Stoxx 50 was unchanged at 5,678.39.
- The DJIA rose 1.12% to close at 46,706.58 on Monday.
- The S&P 500 rose 1.07% to end at 6,735.13.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.37% to end at 22,990.54.
- The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.02% to end at 30,416.44.
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index rose 1.11% to end at 2,916.62.
- US 10-year government bond interest rate fell 1.6bps to 3.972%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.12% to 6,765.75.
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.11% to 25,276.25.
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18% to 46,827.00.
bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 59.6% (unchanged)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03587 (-0.36%)
- Hashrate (7-day moving average): 1,133 EH/s
- Hash Price (Spot): $46.49
- Total fees: 2.93 BTC / $324,314
- CME futures open interest: 144,835 BTC
- BTC Gold Price: 25.6oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 7.23%
technical analysis
- Yesterday, BTC rose to the low $111,000s before being removed from the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and is currently trading around $107,900.
- For bulls to maintain momentum, a daily close above the 200-day EMA and weekly close above $107,400 would help confirm the failed swing pattern established in early September.
- On the downside, the 50-week EMA, currently around $100,200, remains the next major support area on higher time frames.
crypto assets
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Monday’s closing price was $343.78 (+2.31%), pre-market was $338.50, -1.54%.
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $130.81 (+3.42%), -0.95% to end at $129.57
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $39.65 (+4.95%), +2.3% to end at $40.56
- Bullish (BLSH): $58.76 (+2.96%), -1.77% to end at $57.72
- MARA Holdings (MARA): $20.73 (+5.93%), -2.03% to end at $20.31
- Riot Platform (RIOT): $22.01 (+9.89%), -1.95% to end at $21.58
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $18.81 (-1%), +3.14% to end at $19.40
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $20.4 (+4.48%), -1.08% to close at $20.18
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Ended at $59.77 (+2.64%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $26.13 (+5.11%), -0.92% at $25.89
crypto asset company
- Strategy (MSTR): $296.61 (+2.33%), -1.94% to end at $290.85
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $23.65 (+2.03%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): $14.79 (+3.14%), -2.16% to end at $14.47
- Upexi (UPXI): $5.72 (+5.93%), -2.97% to close at $5.55
- Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.98 (+5.32%)
ETF flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: -$40.4 million
- Cumulative net flow: $61.47 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.35 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily net flow: -$145.7 million
- Cumulative net flow: $14.47 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.78 million
Source: Farside Investors