Francisco Rodrigues (always ET unless otherwise indicated)
The crypto market continues to rise this week amidst a weaker than expected US labor data and government shutdowns that adopted a stance that the market is almost certain to cut the Federal Reserve rate next month.
Bitcoin has risen by another 2.15% in the last 24 hours to $118,700, but the broader market measured by the Coindesk 20 (CD20) index has risen 2.33% over the same period. This gathering came despite or because of the increasing uncertainty in traditional markets.
The spark comes from an unexpected decline in private pay in the US. ADP data showed a 32,000 job loss in September against a 50,000 profit forecast. The government suspends official labor data, forcing traders to resort to this mistake for insight, leading to an increase in rate reduction bets.
Polymarket data measures traders with a 91% chance that the Fed could cut 25 bps later this month, and CME’s FedWatch tool has a 99% odds for such rate cut stands.
“The market appears to have responded with relative stability in the first 24 hours after the US government shutdown,” Philipp Zentner, CEO and founder of LIFI Protocol, told Coindesk. “It is worth noting that during the 35-day major closure of 2018 and 2019, the market has been largely resilient and could see similar dynamics this time.”
Its stability, coupled with a flashy macroeconomic environment, is suitable for risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
The derivatives market also reflects this shift, with open interest rising nearly 4% to $216 billion, according to Coinglas data. Similarly, according to Sosovalue, Spot Crypto ETF has seen more than $2.3 billion in net inflows since the beginning of the week.
Still, some people warn about structural risks. Justin Wang, co-founder of Zeus Network, told Coindesk: “The strategy that relies on stock premiums to buy Bitcoin is reaching its limits.” “The adoption of Bitcoin by sustainable institutions requires infrastructure that is independent of market sentiment or stock premiums.”
As shutdowns drag and economic signals grow stronger, investors appear to be heading towards alternative assets like gold and crypto. Speaking to Coindesk, Xyo co-founder Markus Levin said that BTC’s price structure was “It shows the completion of the classic Elliott wave within the rising wedge. This is a pattern that often shows integration before decisive movement. ”
“Institutional flow and derivation activities are important to determine whether this setup will resolve with new highs or deeper retracements. Either way, we will enter one of Bitcoin’s historically most dynamic months, and market participants will need to prepare for volatility,” he said.
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What to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see the Coindesk Crypto Week Affery notes.
- Crypto
- Macros
- October 2nd at 8:30am: Early US unemployment claims (weeks ending September 27th) EST. 223k, continuation (week ending September 20th) est. 1930k. The report is delayed due to federal closures.
- Revenue (Estimation based on fact set data)
Token Event
For a list of more comprehensive events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto Week Affore.
- Governance votes and phone calls
- ENS DAO is voted to refund ETH.LIMO Team 109,818.82 USDC from the Ministry of Finance. These funds cover the legal costs of operating a public gateway. Voting will end on October 2nd.
- Arbitrum Dao is voting to move 8,500 idol ETH to the finance team to win and support the ecosystem. This move is expected to generate ~204 ETH per year. Voting will end on October 2nd.
- Gitcoin Dao is holding a re-voting to approve the revised $1,175,000 matching fund and to approve updates to grant grant categories for upcoming grant 24 (GG24). Voting will end on October 2nd.
- Unlock
- October 2nd: To unlock 0.62% of the circulation supply, unlock the circulation supply worth $23.65 million.
- Token launch
- October 2: DoubleZero (2Z) listed in Binance Alpha, Coinone, Kraken, Bithumb, OKX and more.
meeting
For a list of more comprehensive events this week, see Coindesk’s Crypto Week Affore.
Token talk
Oliver Night
- Plasma founder Paulie Punt has rebutted the claim that the recently issued XPL token was sold by team members despite the reverse data suggesting the opposite.
- Paul said members of the Plasma Team have not sold XPL Holdings since launch. According to him, all investors and team allocations are subject to a three-year lockup with the cliff for a year. This means that you cannot access or sell within that time. He emphasized that the claims of insider unloading cycles are unfounded.
- The founders of Plasma also pushed back the character of the team being composed primarily of “Exblast” employees. Of the approximately 50 team members, only three had a stint beforehand in the blur or explosion, he said. He said the group also includes experts from backgrounds from Google, Facebook, Square, Temasek, Goldman Sachs and Nuvei, highlighting the broader pedigree of the project.
- Another conflict is WinterMute. This is a well-known crypto trading company that is often engaged as a market maker for new projects. Paul denied that Plasma has contracted with WinterMute for market production and other services, and said the company has less information about WinterMute’s XPL Holdings than the public.
- Pseudonym researcher Mana Moon had claimed that more than 600 million XPL tokens were initially transferred from the project’s vault to interactions since its launch.
- XPL has performed relatively low since its launch, with daily trading volumes still steady at $2.6 billion, while sliding from $1.68 to $0.97.
Positioning of derivatives
- The BTC futures market has shown a strong, sustained bullish trend, with key metrics reaching new highs. Open profits rose to an all-time high of $32.6 billion, reflecting a significant increase in trader exposure.
- This record profit is supported by a steady three-month annual basis, with around 7% settling, indicating that trade is profitable and strengthens positive market sentiment. The combination of these two metrics suggests that recent price action is driven by strong, conviction-based bullish positioning rather than short-term speculation.
- The BTC Options market presents complex and contradictory pictures of emotions. The 25 delta skew of short-term options continues its downward trend, at just 3.25%, suggesting that traders want to hedge premiums into downward risk for puts, but the 24-hour put/call volume tells a different story.
- Cole still controls volumes of over 56%, indicating that the majority of traders are actively positioned for gatherings rather than for declines.
- Meanwhile, BTC’s funding rates on major exchanges hover between 9% and 10% per year, indicating healthy demand for long leveraged positions.
- However, the key outlier is Delibit, with funding rates rising dramatically above 60%. This isolated but extreme spike suggests a fierce and intensive demand for long positions on its platform, but the overall market, including Altcoins, does not seem to have overheated the average funds of the top 30 coins yet, due to a market capitalization of around 10% per year per Coinglass.
Market movements
- BTC rose 1.12% from 4pm on Wednesday, $118,927.57 (24 hours: +2.23%)
- ETH is up 1.27% at $4,392.20 (24 hours: +2.59%)
- Coindesk 20 is up 1.49% at 4,232.18 (24 hours: +2.41%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.87%
- BTC’s funding rate is 0.0135% (14.7825% per year) for Kucoin.
- DXY is down 0.18% at 97.53
- Gold futures increased by 0.12% to $3,902.00
- Silver futures fell 0.2% at $47.58
- The Nikkei 225 rose 0.87% to 44,936.73
- Hang Seng rose 1.61% at 27,287.12
- FTSE has not changed at 9,449.86
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.30% at 5,653.99
- The DJIA was unchanged at 46,441.10 on Wednesday
- S&P 500 closed 0.34% at 6,711.20
- NASDAQ Composite rose 0.42% at 22,755.16
- S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.28% at 30,107.67
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 1.55% at 2,905.87
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is down 1.2 bps at 4.094%
- E-Mini S&P 500 futures are no different at 6,766.50
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.25% at 25,081.00
- The E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is down 0.11% at 46,672.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.84% (-0.36%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03691 (0.63%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 1,059 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $49.91
- Total fee: 3.63 BTC/$423,349
- CME Futures Open Interest: 137,820 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.6 oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.66%
Technical Analysis
- Yesterday’s move saw Bitcoin break down past the daily bearish order block and is currently trading at $118,675. Daily proximity indicates a change in the market structure that favors bulls.
- Retesting Order Blocks – Reversing from Resistance to Support – will be a healthy retracement to allow Bitcoin to test its all-time highs again. The Bulls will want to see Bitcoin establish acceptance beyond the order block.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed Wednesday at $346.17 (+2.57%), with +2% at $353.11
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $129.03 (-2.68%), +3% at $132.90
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $35.83 (+5.97%), closed at $36.90 at +2.99%
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $60.81 (-4.4%), +2.22% is $62.16
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $18.61 (+1.92%), +2.47% at $19.07 +2.47%
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $18.93 (-0.53%), +1.74% at $19.26 +1.74%
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $17.97 (+0.17%), $18.19 at +1.22%
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $14.59 (+0.62%), closed at +1.71% at $14.84
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $45.07 (+1.88%)
- Exodus Movement (Exod): $28.31 (+1.91%), +0.11% at $28.34 at +0.11%
Cryptocurrency company
- Strategy (MSTR): $338.41 (+5.03%), +2.29% at $346.15 +2.29%
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $31.03 (+3.43%)
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $17.37 (+2.12%), +1.78% closed at $17.68
- upexi(upxi): $6.53 (+13.17%), closed at $6.70 at +2.6%
- Lite Strategy (Lits): $2.56 (+5.79%), +5.47% closed at $2.70
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $675.8 million
- Cumulative net flow: $58.4 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 132 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $80.9 million
- Cumulative net flow: $13.9 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 6.61 million
Source: Farside Investors