Important takeouts:
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Bitcoin is suffering from its latest weekly decline since March, sliding under $110,000.
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Leveraged positions over $15 billion were washed away, indicating a reset of risk appetite.
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The seasonality of October has historically provided strong Bitcoin benefits.
Bitcoin (BTC) withstands its most sharp weekly decline since March 2025, with prices exceeding 5% and below $110,000. The corrections have hit short-term traders hard this week as more than 60,000 BTC were sent to the exchange.
This showed that Bitcoin reached a Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base of $109,700 for the first time in five months.
At the same time, the drawdown revealed the scale of risk-on positioning across the crypto market. Crypto analyst Maartunn pointed out that $11.8 billion leveraged Altcoin Bets and $3.2 billion speculative Bitcoin positions have been flashed out, pointing to a major reset of the risk appeal. Analysts argued that the cleanup would help reduce market vulnerabilities and pave the way for a more balanced recovery.
Market sentiment has also changed dramatically. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that the advanced emotional index plummeted from 86% (very bullish) to just 15% (bearish) in two weeks. While zones below 20% often cause technical bounce, Adler Jr. emphasized that recovery is high for a 30-day moving average trend, and emotions are required to exceed 40-45%.
Long-term holders (LTH) appeared to be stable as their distribution remained restrained at $76.7 million per week. Meanwhile, only 1.5% of STH is at a loss, with most still profiting, limiting the risk of forced liquidation.
However, Adler Jr. warned that if STH losses exceed 10% and market value falls below the realised value, the risk of surrender increases.
Related: Bitcoin sees the most fears since $83,000 as the “turning point” of the eye of analysis
Is the seasonality of rescue in October?
While the short-term photos seemed fragile, Bitcoin’s current path isn’t too far from historic seasonality. September usually provided a negative return, with an average of -3.43%, and BTC was able to remain slightly positive at +0.68% so far.
Bitcoin Network Economist Timothy Peterson suggested that the latest pullbacks fit neatly with past patterns. “This is a September surrender,” Peterson said. “My daily tracking sheet shows the lowest median median on September 25th. Bitcoin has an average gain of 1.7% and will end 80% of the next five days.”
Peterson also emphasizes that 60% of Bitcoin’s annual performance will occur after October 3rd, making it likely that profits will reach June. The economists predicted that there is a 50% chance that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by mid-2026, citing the seasonally-driven bull phase between October and June.
History also gives weight to optimism. Since 2019, Bitcoin has been closed in Green every October, with an average return rate of 21.89%. Even at Bear Market in 2022, BTC recorded a profit of 5.53% that month. If the pattern applies, the current wave of pain could soon be updated as the market enters the most seasonally bullish stretch.
Related: Bitcoin collapses at under $109,000, but data shows buyers are intervening
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.