Important takeouts:
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Assuming that the BTC price holds a support level of $110,000, bullish bets dominate the expiration date of the Bitcoin option in September.
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Despite the high demand for bullish bets, macroeconomic uncertainty maintains negative side risk for the table.
On Friday, a total of $22.6 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) option is expected to expire, creating a critical moment after a sharp rejection at $117,000. Currently, bullish strategies are in a better position towards expiration dates, as long as the $112,000 level is retained.
Delibit continues to dominate the market with $17.4 billion of public interest on Bitcoin options on Friday, but OKX and CME are behind by $1.9 billion each. Call (buy) options generally outweigh Put (sales) contracts, reflecting the consistent optimism of Cryptocurrency Traders.
Neutral to fierce demand for Bitcoin locations is widespread
The September expiration date continues its normal trend, sitting below 20% of the call position $12.6 billion. The final outcome will depend on the price of Bitcoin at 8am on Friday, with the initial advantage of the call holder being whether the price is above $112,000.
Traders’ positioning on the Delibit Exchange shows that neutral to bear bets range from $95,000 to $110,000. A significant portion of the call contract was placed at a very optimistic level, with $6.6 billion in public interest waiting over $120,000, and about $3.3 billion played realistically.
Meanwhile, 81% of Deribit’s Put Options are set below $110,000, with only $1.4 billion being active. This setup strongly supports neutral to ferocious results, but analysis excludes more complex strategies, such as sales puts to capture upward exposures. To see if the experts are really bullish, traders are monitoring options with skew metrics.
The Bitcoin option Delta Skew shows a 13% moderate fear, with Put Options trading at a premium over comparable call contracts. Under neutral conditions, this gauge should remain between -6% and 6%, indicating that whales and market makers are unsure about the negative side risk at the current 113,500 levels.
Related: Bitcoin “move smart again” towards the end of 2025 – Sayler
$112,000 is a key level to determine the momentum of Bitcoin
Below are three possible scenarios for Deribit, based on current price trends:
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Between $107,000 and $110,000: $1 billion calls (purchases) vs $2 billion puts (selling). Net results support $1 billion in put equipment.
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Between $110,100 and $112,000: It’s a $1.4 billion call-to-$1.4 billion put, resulting in a balanced outcome.
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Between $112,100 and $115,000: The $1.66 billion call vs. $1 billion call supports the $660 million call.
It may be too early to completely amortize your bearish option strategy. Traders’ sentiment could change in response to major macroeconomic releases scheduled for Thursday, including US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, weekly unemployment claims and upcoming Treasury auctions.
An increasingly vulnerable economic background supports additional interest rate reductions, a bullish driver of risk-on assets such as the US Federal Reserve, typically cryptocurrency. Still, the existing concerns about the weakness of the labour market negatively weigh the price of Bitcoin.
For now, the monthly Bitcoin option expiration dates in September have leaned in bulls’ favor, but we cannot rule out a critical drop below $112,000.
This article is for general informational purposes and is not intended to be considered legal or investment advice, and should not be done. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or express Cointregraph’s views and opinions.