BitMine Buys M Ethereum as Kalshi K Odds Drop 34%

BitMine has made a new bet on Ethereum, acquiring 7,660 ETH worth approximately $29 million from Galaxy Digital. The large inflows into BitMine’s wallets highlight renewed institutional investor appetite for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency, despite growing caution in the retail market.

Institutional investors accumulate Ethereum as retail traders turn bearish

According to Arkham data, the transaction occurred when Galaxy Digital sent two separate batches of 3,818 ETH and 3,842 ETH to BitMine’s primary address (0xa7a). Based on the accumulation movement, financial institutions are still aiming for medium-term gains in Ethereum. The inflow into the company is the latest in Bitmine’s history of large-scale ETH acquisitions, with recent purchases involving over $820 million worth of tokens.

According to Arcam data, Galaxy Digital transferred 7,660 ETH worth $29 million to Bitmine.According to Arcam data, Galaxy Digital transferred 7,660 ETH worth $29 million to Bitmine.
The large purchases of Ethereum indicate increased accumulation by institutional investors despite weak retail sentiment.

However, the retail bias is waning. Continued Ethereum purchases by BitMine and other similar purchases often portend a shortage of tokens on cryptocurrency exchanges.

Kalsi’s latest predictive market data paints a very different picture. Traders on the platform currently see only a 34% chance that Ethereum will reach $5,000 by the end of the year. This is a significant drop from more than 40% just a month ago.

Kalsi’s chart shows Ethereum $5,000 odds dropping to 34% as trader optimism declines.Kalsi’s chart shows Ethereum $5,000 odds dropping to 34% as trader optimism declines.
Traders are becoming cautious as the probability of Ethereum reaching $5,000 drops to 34%, according to predictive market data.

This decline reflects continued uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions, the Federal Reserve’s policy on rate cuts, and broader on-chain activity. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently made it clear that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates again this year.

It is clear that there is a disconnect between the prediction market flow and the on-chain flow. A retail pullback typically involves a whale of accumulation before upward momentum begins again. Therefore, the acquisition by BitMine could signal the early stages of broader institutional purchases of ETH.

Analysts predict ETH price rise

Meanwhile, market analyst Ted Pillows noted that the company is buying between $200 million and $300 million of Ethereum every week. “If a few more buyers consider doing that, we could see a reversal in ETH,” Pillows said. His observations are consistent with a growing view among analysts that consistent institutional buying could soon offset weak retail sentiment.

The optimism was further fueled by popular crypto analyst Michael Van de Poppe’s outlook on Ethereum. He said the network’s broader ecosystem remains one of its strongest investment themes heading into 2026.

The analyst predicted that if momentum builds across the Layer 2 network, ETH could soon reach all-time highs “north of $5,000.” Analysts also expect the price range of ETH to be $5,000 after the Fusaka upgrade plan.

Mr. Van de Poppe’s analysis contrasts with Mr. Carsi’s bearish crowd view. This suggests that large traders still expect the Ethereum ecosystem to outperform once risk sentiment improves. At the time of writing, ETH price was around $3,780, down about 1.2% in the past 24 hours.

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