Important points:
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Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson expects the recovery to take two to six months, but the outlook remains mixed.
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One model cites historic price movement breakout phases in 2017, 2021, and 2024.
Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent correction has tempered bullish enthusiasm, with analysts now predicting a gradual path towards new highs.
Since hitting an all-time high of $126,200 on October 6th, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen about 20% and currently hovers below $100,000. According to network economist Timothy Peterson, this decline is consistent with Bitcoin’s historical recovery pattern. Peterson explained:
“This is the third 20% drawdown from all-time highs since 2024. The average recovery from these levels to the new ATH is 2-6 months.”
The economist added that according to the AI-generated simulation, there is a less than 20% chance that Bitcoin will reach $140,000 by the end of the year, a 50% chance that it will end above $108,000, and a 30% chance that it will end 2025 in the red.
Similarly, Galaxy head of research Alex Thorne lowered the company’s year-end BTC target from $185,000 to $120,000, citing market maturity. Thorne noted that Bitcoin is entering a phase where institutional participation, passive inflows, and declining volatility will dictate price trends.
Thorne added that holding the $100,000 support could structurally sustain the three-year bullish trend, but “future rallies could unfold at a slower and more steady pace as Bitcoin moves into a mature era.”
Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trader Titan of Crypto offered a more mixed outlook, predicting a possible new all-time high near $130,000 by the end of the year, but warning that Bitcoin could fall below $70,000 by the first quarter of 2026, based on Wyckoff distribution analysis.
Related: BTC price ‘bottoming phase’ begins, Bitcoin surpasses $100,000
Market reset for Bitcoin’s next stage remains active
Despite widespread caution, Bitcoin commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera took a contrasting view, arguing that the recent correction could actually spur BTC towards a parabolic phase.
Perera said that 29.2% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently underwater, a level that historically precedes large stock price increases. Perera pointed out that similar indicators appeared before the 2017, 2021 and 2024 bull markets, each leading to gains of 150% to 400% within six months.
Perera said the overall derivatives market has been de-leveraged, with long-term holders now controlling about 70% of the supply. Accumulation by institutional investors through ETFs and growth in stablecoin reserves suggests that “liquidity is being recharged behind the scenes.”
The analyst concluded that unless a major macro or geopolitical shock triggers, Bitcoin’s current structure reflects its previous pre-breakout situation and a new explosive cycle could begin in the next 180 days.
Related: $100,000 Bitcoin ‘speed bumps’ to $56,000, but data shows no signs of panic
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.