Bitcoin Sentiment Slides as Market Dips: Why Bearish Odds Are Now Increasing

Today, Bitcoin is in a tailspin, and the overall sentiment in the prediction market is falling with it.

Bitcoin fell to $110,000 today, down 3%, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a December interest rate cut was “not a foregone conclusion.” Powell’s comments came after Wednesday afternoon’s news that the Fed announced a 0.25% interest rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75% to 4.00%.

But rather than bucking the dovish move, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets plunged amid more hawkish comments than expected.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin prediction market Myriad Sentiment is a platform developed by Myriad. decryption‘s parent company Dastan similarly tumbled today, dropping nearly 20%. The odds of predicting Bitcoin’s next move ($120,000 up or $100,000 down) fell from 75% predicting an increase to just 58%. This reversal suggests that traders are losing some optimism about BTC’s near-term future.

Analysts previously said the Fed’s rate cut today was widely expected and should not have had a short-term impact on prices. decryption. Therefore, the decline was likely caused by more typical “selling the news” behavior, or by Mr. Powell’s more hawkish statements, or a combination of the two.

Now that the Fed’s decision is in the rearview mirror, attention has shifted to whether Bitcoin can maintain its key support levels or whether the market will head towards the $100,000 test.

But there is a contradiction here. Institutional money is still flowing in. The Bitcoin ETF had net inflows of $202.48 million on October 28, bringing its cumulative net inflows to $62.3 billion. That’s a real conviction — even if the short-term traders’ bail and prediction markets are, if not bearish, at least not very bullish.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price: Weak Hand Confirmed

The post-Fed decline indicates that Bitcoin is in short-term trouble. The cryptocurrency opened today’s daily candlestick at $112,925 and quickly sold off, reaching a pre-Fed announcement low of $109,265. The subsequent decline to $111,700 indicates that sellers remain firmly in control.

Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44.87 on the daily chart. RSI measures whether an asset is overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) on a scale of 0 to 100. This reading shows that Bitcoin is in a neutral zone, suggesting a slight bearish tilt. However, holders are not panicking and this is by no means evidence of a bearish trend.

However, the situation looks even worse in shorter time frames. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is just 36.38, which is in oversold territory. This tells traders that selling pressure is increasing. Traders will be monitoring the upcoming candlesticks to check for a possible rebound to the ascending channel that has been in place since mid-October.

On the daily chart, the average directional index (ADX) is only 17.29. ADX measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction, similarly on a scale of 0 to 100, with a reading above 25 confirming the existence of a trend. Even on the 4-hour time frame, Bitcoin’s ADX remains at 24.22, indicating increasing market indecision. Traders may interpret this as a move, but there is no conviction behind it.

Exponential moving averages (EMAs) tell several stories. EMA gives traders a sense of price support and resistance by taking the average price of an asset over the short, medium and long term.

On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA, meaning Bitcoin’s average price over the past 50 days, is still trading above the 200-day EMA. This usually indicates that the long-term uptrend is holding. This is the only bullish technical factor that holds hope. However, on the 4-hour chart, the 50-period EMA is below the 200-period EMA, creating a bearish ‘death cross’ suggesting short-term momentum has shifted to the downside.

However, the fact that the EMA is hinting at a possible golden cross on the 4-hour candlestick is enough to give traders hope that Bitcoin could still end the month in a bullish channel.

Why rate cuts didn’t matter

The market issues are: The market doesn’t really care about anything. happenand is primarily driven by what happens compared to expectations.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, which uses futures trading data to gauge sentiment, a 0.25% Fed rate cut is priced in with 97% certainty. When something is this widely anticipated, there is no fuel for upside. Everyone who wanted to buy it had already bought it.

Historically, lower interest rates have fueled bullish momentum in cryptocurrencies by making borrowing cheaper and pushing investors toward riskier assets. However, it takes time for its effects to permeate the system. The immediate aftermath has seen profit-taking by traders who had been bracing for the announcement, and flip-flopping by low-conviction traders who may be spooked by Mr. Powell’s unexpected remarks.

What prompted the gathering? Mr. Powell’s highly dovish forward guidance suggests either an unexpected 0.50% rate cut (which Federal Reserve President Stephen Milan voted in favor of but was defeated) or continued aggressive easing. Neither came true.

This decline has more implications than just the Fed’s reaction. Just yesterday, technical analysis suggested that Bitcoin is likely to end October above the monthly opening level of $114,200, sustaining its “uptober” seasonal trend.

Bitcoin was trading at $115,542 with bullish momentum indicators (ADX 32, RSI 69, bullish squeeze firing), with prediction markets indicating 70% odds in favor of a continuation. That story took a huge hit. Bitcoin is currently trading at $111,700 (2.2% below its monthly opening price) and will end October in the red unless there is a dramatic reversal within the next 48 hours. So much for Uptober.

what happens next

Following the Fed’s decision, the focus returns to pure price trends. Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture, and the coming days will determine whether it heads toward $100,000 or whether it can claw its way back to $120,000.

The bearish case is simple. Technical indicators are weak, prediction markets have moved dramatically, momentum has been lost, and the “selling the news” strategy continues. The $110,000-$111,000 zone is providing temporary support, but if it breaks, the path of least resistance would be $106,000-$108,000, with the 200-day EMA providing stronger support.

In the bullish case, Bitcoin should recover $112,500 and hold as support. From there, an increase in volume and a break above $114,000 could invalidate the bearish setup and open the door to $117,000 to $120,000.

For traders, it is relatively easy. The path of least resistance is currently down, until Bitcoin regains $112,500 and shows some real momentum (ADX above 25 is a start).

Key levels to focus on

• Key resistance: $113,000 (must be recovered to override the bearish setup),
• Target resistance $114,500,
• Support: $108,000 (200-day EMA zone, strong support),
• Strong support: $100,000 (psychic level and predicted market target)