summary
- After falling to $100,000, Bitcoin price has remained in the range of $100,000 to $108,000.
- Increased miner sales could limit Bitcoin’s short-term recovery.
- If BTC breaks above $108,000 and ETF inflows return, there is room for upside.
- Downside risks include further miner liquidations and reduced trading volumes.
- The outlook for Bitcoin remains neutral to bearish as macro support is offset by distributional pressures.
After falling to just over $100,000, Bitcoin prices have fluctuated between $100,000 and $108,000, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours.
The big question for traders is: Will miners’ persistent selling put a cap on the next price rally?
Current market scenario
On-chain indicators following the halving event show a spike in miner selling as coins move to exchanges for profit-taking in a high-cost environment. Such circulation waves have historically placed short-term pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), suppressing immediate gains. ETF inflows have cooled since September, when they hit a record high, and spot demand has declined.
From a macro perspective, the rate cut will increase liquidity, but investors remain cautious ahead of the fourth quarter’s consumer price index (CPI) data.
Technically, Bitcoin price is still above its 100-day SMA, with support at $103,000-$104,000 and resistance near $108,000.
Upward outlook
From a Bitcoin prediction perspective, a sustained price movement above $108,000 could attract fresh buying and push the market towards $110,000. If miner selling stabilizes and ETF inflows resume, Bitcoin could retest its post-halving highs.
Additionally, the ongoing macro easing cycle, coupled with Bitcoin’s growing correlation with gold, continues to strengthen its “digital store of value” narrative. If this theme strengthens, it could reignite institutional investor interest and send the market higher.
downside risk
Downside risk is increasing. If miner sales increase, Bitcoin price could fall below $103,000 to $104,000 and even test the $100,000 level.
Slow ETF inflows and low trading volumes suggest the market may be in a profit-taking phase.
Combined with rising bond yields and tightening monetary policy, the risk-off mood could cause prices to remain flat or even fall before a full-fledged recovery.
Bitcoin price prediction based on current levels
Short-term Bitcoin price prediction focuses on the trading range of $100,000 to $108,000.
- A break above $108,000 could start a rally towards $110,000, bringing fresh excitement to the market.
- However, if Bitcoin stumbles around $108,000, the rally to $110,000 could stall and we could see a sideways move or a small decline.
Overall, the outlook for Bitcoin remains neutral to bearish. While the macro environment is providing some support, strong miner selling and weak ETF demand are likely to cap short-term gains.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials published on this page are for educational purposes only.