The long-term behavior of Bitcoin prices is abnormal. In just over a decade, that number rose from a few hundred dollars to more than $100,000, creating one of the most dramatic wealth transfers in modern history. However, the question currently dominating investors’ minds is whether BTC can scale this exponential growth to potentially seven digits. If so, when?
Fundamental value of Bitcoin price
Few models have generated as much controversy as Stock-to-Flow. Once hailed as a roadmap for Bitcoin’s price, it has fallen out of favor in recent cycles due to its inability to predict post-halving performance. But while the model itself may no longer have predictive power, its core premise that Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity creates long-term value remains valid.
Rather than relying on hard mathematical predictions, a more grounded approach is to look at the cost of producing Bitcoin, an estimate of how much electricity it takes to mine one BTC. Historically, this indicator has served as a structural floor below prices. Each halving doubles its cost, tightening available supply and laying a new foundation for future price increases.
Bitcoin price Production cost
Based on current efficiency trends and average energy prices, production costs are expected to rise to approximately $175,000 per BTC by early 2028 after the next halving. This level is roughly in line with previous cycle lows, suggesting that if Bitcoin remains above its cost basis, its fair valuation could approach $200,000 by then.
Extending this trend, the cost to mine 1 BTC is expected to reach approximately $675,000 by 2032, assuming modest improvements in miner efficiency and no dramatic changes in global energy costs. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has peaked at a multiple of its cost of production, which has been around 9x in 2017, 4.5x in 2021, and around 2.25x this cycle. If this pattern of decline continues, even a 1.5x increase during the 2032 cycle would leave BTC at around $1 million, suggesting the next big peak could arrive in the mid-2030s.
Bitcoin price increase rate
A look at Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since its initial exchange listing shows a consistent but gradually slowing curve. When modeled as a linear regression, this trend shows that the BTC price will be around $2 million by 2035, with diminishing returns thereafter. This model predicts Bitcoin to be worth between $5 million and $10 million by 2040, depending on the starting data window used.
However, all of these regression-based models, such as “power law” and log growth curves, have the same flaw: they are backward fits. That accuracy exists only in hindsight, not necessarily foresight. Even small shifts in data or time frames can shift long-term forecasts by years or even millions of dollars, making them useful for context but unreliable for accuracy.
Bitcoin price conclusion
While the model can provide a rough framework, the price of Bitcoin ultimately depends on the balance between supply and demand. As new issuance continues to decline and adoption grows, production cost floors and the liquidity environment are likely to remain the strongest anchors over time. Macroeconomic forces, particularly real yields, currency expansion, and capital turnover from traditional assets, will continue to determine the pace and magnitude of Bitcoin’s rise.
If Bitcoin follows its historical rhythm, seven-digit prices could become a reality in the mid-2030s. But as every cycle has shown, models can guide expectations, but they cannot dictate them. The best strategy is always the same. It’s about reacting to data rather than predicting it.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please be sure to do your own research before making any investment decisions.