Bitcoin prices plummeted to the $102,000 range on Tuesday, extending losses from a 24-hour high of more than $107,000.
Bitcoin prices fell throughout the day as traditional markets made significant gains. Bitcoin initially rose on news of government reopenings and possible tariff checks, but quickly reversed as broader risk sentiment became mixed.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is around $102,636, hovering around $99,000, an important psychological support.
Bitcoin’s price rally comes as President Donald Trump announced proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks for Americans, a populist rebate funded by record tariff revenues. The plan, announced Sunday on Truth Social, promises to return “trillions of dollars” collected from global trade tariffs and help pay down the nation’s $37 trillion debt.
However, the market view was different. Investors saw the proposal as a de facto stimulus program, potentially reintroducing pandemic-style liquidity into an economy already showing signs of overheating.
Meanwhile, Washington is inching closer to reopening. Senate Democrats worked with Republicans to approve a temporary funding bill late Monday on a 60-40 vote, ending a 41-day federal shutdown. The deal, which President Trump is expected to sign, would restore pay to federal workers and restart key services, but has sparked debate within the Democratic caucus over the loss of extended health care benefits.
Technical photo: Bitcoin price is caught between bulls and bears
Bitcoin’s price structure remains in a precarious position between support and resistance. The $99,000 level is reinforced by the 55-week exponential moving average and continues to serve as an important floor. On the upside, Fibonacci resistance is near $109,400, with stronger selling pressure expected at $111,000.
A decisive break above $116,000 could rekindle the rally towards $129,000, the upper bound of the Bitcoin price widening wedge pattern.
Purchases by institutional investors remain firm. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, revealed last week that it had purchased 487 BTC for $49.9 million, bringing its holdings to more than 641,000 coins (nearly $47.5 billion).
Macro optimism associated with the resumption of government activities has supported stock prices, and has also slightly spilled over into the virtual currency market. But analysts have warned that renewed fiscal problems and a slowdown in ETF inflows could reignite volatility and send Bitcoin back toward $96,000 or even $93,000.
Despite short-term uncertainty, long-term indicators remain positive. Supply remains tight due to rising production costs and the expansion of long-term ownership, a situation that has historically preceded major business cycle upturns. With only 5% of the total Bitcoin supply remaining to be mined by the halving in 2028, scarcity is once again becoming the dominant view.
Bitcoin price image: From $100,000 to $1 million?
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s price has risen from a few hundred dollars to more than $100,000, reshaping global finance and creating one of the most dramatic wealth transfers in modern history. The question now is, can this exponential growth continue, perhaps to seven digits?
Although models like Stock-to-Flow have lost credibility, their core ideas remain. In other words, scarcity increases value. A more realistic approach is to track Bitcoin’s production cost, which has historically served as a structural floor, i.e. the average energy cost to mine 1 BTC.
By 2028 after the next halving, the price of Bitcoin could reach $175,000 per BTC. If Bitcoin continues to trade above its cost basis, its fair value could approach $200,000. Data from Matt Crosby and Bitcoin Magazine Pro suggests that mining costs could rise to $675,000 by 2032, and could peak at nearly $1 million if the price-to-cost ratio follows historical patterns.
Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate has slowed, but remains strong. Regression-based models suggest prices will be between $2 million and $10 million by 2040, but such predictions are backward-looking and should be treated with caution.
Ultimately, Bitcoin price depends on macro liquidity, real yield, and adoption. As issuance declines and demand continues, production costs and capital turnover from traditional assets will support the next phase of growth.
If history is anything to go by, the mid-2030s could see Bitcoin approaching the seven-digit era, but as always, models guide expectations, not fate.