The Bitcoin options market is divided into two very different regimes. A short-term tape that appears to be locked in place by dealer hedges, and a year-end setup built for Price to roam.
Bitcoin prices range from nearly $119,000 to about $113,500 since their peak in August, but are even higher than in early July. This places it in front of the optional structure with short dates that expire this week. There, the mechanics have to take over and the flow has to fight hard to push the market in either direction.
October 1st is the perfect example. The gamma curve shows steep ridges between $113,000 and $115,000, but the delta profile reverses violently in the same zone. That combination means that market makers are most sensitive to price changes in their range, and their hedges naturally draw the market back when they attempt to wander.
Unless someone sells or sells heavy spots or constant futures, tapes tend to be stuck there. This is why options traders talk about “gravity” levels around the main expiration date. The hedger is not trying to invoke direction, it mechanically balances the book, and the net effect is that volatility suffocates.
However, if you are a little below the calendar, the image will change dramatically. December 26th is the biggest open interest portion of Delibit, but this expiry date gamma remains flat. A flat gamma surface means that the dealer is not very sensitive to small movements. They are not forced to continue adjusting the delta so that prices can turn.
It increases the market path dependency. When bitcoin gathers, there is less resistance from the hedger slowing it down, and if it sells out there will be less support to catch the fall from the hedger. You can combine that with the magnitude of the concept of expiration dates at the end of the year. This is a recipe for highly volatile windows where directional flow can be performed without mechanical air brakes.
This is also evident in the distribution of strikes. The calls will be stacked at $119,000, between $124,000 and $130,000, again at $150,000 and $170,000. Beyond that, there are speculative tails ranging from $320,000 to $400,000. Puts are concentrated between $80,000 and $111,000, with heavy ridges ranging from about $105,000 to $111,000. That is the battlefield that the market portrays.
Currently, the spot is below the first large call shelf, at $119,000 and above the low, dense put zone of $100,000. The Put/Call Open Interest ratio is only 0.37, so the upward structure is dominant.
Traders bet on breakouts rather than paying for collision insurance. This means that if the spot punches for $119,000, the hedger will have to chase the Delta into a corridor that ranges from $124,000 to $130,000. Conversely, if the spot drops from $108,000 to $111,000, the put sitting there will be less value, and the writers will absorb the flow and slow downsides unless fresh sales arrive.
That asymmetry highlights the December 26th expiration date. If Cole controls the board and there is no strong gamma ridge, then the resistance level drops, resulting in a rally clean air.
On the downside, the support is softer. Without a wall of protection and without putting the ladder further down, it will require new risk-off demand to maintain momentum. It sets a market where recent pinnings will reverse to year-end tracking, and the calendar will trigger as much as the price itself.
Light exposure for a very short week after October 1st, once again severe reconcentration on October 31st and December 26th, followed by secondary inflation in March 2026. These dates are where fluidity, hedger relocation, and volatility are compressed or expanded. That means October is a lull and the second half of the fourth quarter is a storm.
The Post Bitcoin option is pinned at $113,000, so traders can wait until December for volatility to unlock the first appearance.