The US-listed Spot Bitcoin Exchange Trade Fund (ETF) launched a historically bullish month in the week of its second most recent influx since launch, signaling updated investor optimism.
According to SoSoValue data, the Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF has recorded a cumulative net positive inflow worth $3.24 billion over the past week, roughly in line with a record of $3.38 billion for the week ending November 22, 2024.
The figure shows a sharp rebound from last week’s $902 million outflow. Analysts said the turnaround was attributed to growing expectations for another US interest rate cut, which improved feelings about risky assets.
Another rising expectations for US interest rate cuts have caused a “change in emotions,” attracting new investors in Bitcoin ETFs, and “conveying a four-week inflow to nearly $4 billion,” Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst for digital assets platforms, told CointeLegraph. “At current execution rates, Q4 flows could eliminate more than 100,000 BTC from the circulation, which is more than twice as new.”
“While the long-term holder distribution is relaxed, ETF absorption will accelerate, helping BTC build a stronger base,” he added.
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The ongoing inflow of ETFs could provide Bitcoin with a significant tailbone in October. This is the second best month in Bitcoin in terms of average historical returns, often referred to as “up-to-bar” by crypto investors.
This week’s $3.2 billion temporarily pushed Bitcoin prices past $123,996 on Friday, according to TradingView data, the last seen six-week high for the world’s first cryptocurrency on August 14th.
Bitcoin’s $120,000 breakout could invite “very quick moves” to an all-time high of $150,000 by the end of 2025, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards told Cointelegraph in an interview at Token2049 in Singapore.
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Uptober raises analysts’ hopes for new bitcoin
According to Karchev, the Bitcoin ETF is currently serving as the “most clear emotional barometer” for the cryptocurrency industry, marking a potential breakout in October.
“Uptober shows clear indications of early Q4 breakout in the crypto market that drives ETF influx, seasonal strength and macro conditions.”
But Bitcoin’s momentum will depend on several key events next week, including the upcoming speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the release of minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Investors are also looking forward to the delayed US employment report, but the release date will depend on the length of the current US government closure, the first instance since 2018.
Meanwhile, investors are hoping for a month that is strong for Bitcoin’s momentum, as October is the second-best month in terms of Bitcoin’s historic performance.
According to Coinglass data, BTC averaged monthly returns of 20% in October, 46% in November and about 4% in December.
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