James Van Stratin (all times unless otherwise indicated)
It’s a new day, but the same story: I’m struggling You are trying to hold the $4,000 range. Crypto Bulls can get some comfort in the fact that there is only a week left in September, a historically bearish month, and that the strongest quarter is usually right around the corner.
Emotions within the industry remained restrained. The code’s fear and greedy index is at 45, which is neutral, but slightly closer to fear than greed. Part of the reason is the decline in Bitcoin performance compared to traditional assets. Over the past three months, Bitcoin has added 7%, while the S&P 500 has earned 9% and Gold 12%.
Going forward, $17 billion worth of Bitcoin options will be effective tomorrow, with the biggest pain price (the level at which option holders experience the most economic losses) at $110,000. This is just below the current spot price of $112,000 and can offer short-term gravity pull. For now, Bitcoin is expected to merge between $110,000 and $116,000 until October.
Meanwhile, the most notable actions continue to lie in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing stocks such as Iren (Iren). However, Bitcoin finance companies are under pressure. KindlyMD (NAKA) struggled at $1.17, outperforming private investments in public stock (pipe) pricing, while Metaplanet (3350) fell another 4% in Tokyo. Stocks have fallen by more than 70% from an all-time high, trading at Net Asset Value (MNAV) from a multiple of 1.24. This decline highlights how MNAV has been compressed across the broader market. Keep alerts!
What to see
- Crypto
- 8am, September 25th: Plasma, a Layer-1 blockchain designed for global Stablecoin Payments, launches mainnet beta and native token XPL.
- Macros
- September 25th, 8:30am: U.S. August Durable Goods Order Mom Composite Est. -0.5%, Ex Transportation Est. 0%.
- September 25th, 8:30am: US Q2 GDP (final) Growth Rate QOQ EST. 3.3%.
- September 25th, 8:30am: Jobless’s initial claim (September 20th w/e) EST. 235k, continued (September 13th w/e) est. 1930k.
- September 25th, 8:30am: US Q2 PCE Price (Final) QOQ Headline EST. 2%; Core EST. 2.5%.
- September 25th, 10am: Existing home sales EST in August, USA. 3.98m.
- September 25th, 10am: Vice-chairman of oversight for Michelle Bowman’s speech on “overseeing and regulation.”
- September 25th, 1pm: Governor Michael Bar’s speech on the “bank stress test.”
- September 25th: 3pm: Mexico’s benchmark interest rate EST. 7.5%.
- Revenue (estimation based on fact set data)
Token Event
- Governance votes and phone calls
- Unlock
- September 25th: To unlock 2.28% of the released supply worth $7.98 million.
- Token launch
- September 25th: Aster (Aster) lists on BTSE.
- September 25th: Plasma (XPL) lists in 10+ exchanges such as Binance, OKX, Bitget and more.
- September 25th: Listed in Gate Us.
- September 25th: avantis (avnt) will be listed on BTSE.
meeting
Token talk
By Francisco Rodriguez
- Hyperliquid hype token prices have significantly reduced performance in the broader crypto market, primarily due to increased competition from BNB chain-based derivatives.
- Supported by YZI Labs, Aster overtakes high lipids in its persistent daily trading volumes this week, with the upset that sent shockwaves through Crypto’s on-chain trading ecosystem.
- In just a week, Astor’s open interest inflated 33,500%, jumping from $3.7 million to $1.25 billion. The 24-hour trading volume reached $35.8 billion, more than twice the high lipids, which recorded $10 billion, according to Defillama data. The Aster total value locked (TVL) also jumped, almost tripling to $1.855 billion.
- Aster, the platform’s token, has added over 344% to $2 over the past week, bringing a fully diluted valuation to $15.9 billion. The hype slid from $58.4 to $43.
- Hype’s drop coincides with investors’ concerns about future token unlocks. In late November, the 237 million hype worth more than $10 billion at current prices will gradually become liquid over two years.
Positioning of derivatives
- Open interest (OI) in futures tied to many major tokens has declined over the past 24 hours, with Avax seeing its most sharp decline, nearly 12%.
- Still, the overall position in BTC futures remains rising, with the OI hovering near record highs. ETH futures OI increased to 14.45 million ETH despite a large-scale liquidation of decentralized exchange lipids.
- The permanent OI of SOLs dominated by large exchanges USDT and dollars has increased slightly from SOLs of 29 million since Asian time, dropping the spot price to $200. Some traders seem to be shorting down decline.
- XRP, SOL, HBAR, TRX, SUI, and XLM stand out as coins with negative funding rates, pointing to bearish short position bias.
- The CME has resumed the downtrend of BTC futures while Ether futures OI has returned to highs above ETH of 2.2 million. ETH’s three-month annual base fell from 9.8% to 7% with signs of weakening bull pressure.
- In Deribit, the BTC and ETH Put Put options continue to attract premiums compared to calls and draw bearish pictures. Some traders have picked up the sub-strikes outside the money that ether places through the paradigm of the OTC desk.
Market movements
- BTC fell 1.71% from 4pm on Wednesday to $111,622.87 (24 hours: -1.06%)
- ETH is down 3.38% at $4,026.82 (24 hours: -3.47%)
- Coindesk 20 is down 3.52% at 3,923.42 (24 hours: -2.57%)
- Ether CESR Composite staking rate is up 5 bps at 2.9%
- BTC’s funding rate is 0.0022% (annual rate of 2.3586%) for Binance
- DXY has not changed at 97.84
- Gold futures increased 0.39% to $3,782.80
- Silver futures are up 1.95% at $45.06
- The Nikkei 225 rose 0.27% to 45,754.93
- Hang Seng closed 0.13% at 26,484.68
- FTSE is down 0.14% at 9,237.23
- The Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.25% at 5,450.72
- DJIA fell 0.37% on Wednesday at 46,121.28
- S&P 500 closed 0.28% at 6,637.97
- Nasdaq Composite fell 0.33% at 22,497.86
- S&P/TSX Composite closed 0.20% at 29,756.95
- S&P 40 Latin America closed 0.55% at 2,941.02
- The 10-year financial ratio in the US is down 0.8 bps at 4.139%
- e-mini S&P 500 futures remain unchanged at 6,691.25
- E-Mini Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.16% at 24,699.00
- E-Mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index has not been changed at 46,471.00
Bitcoin statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.92% (+0.45%)
- Ether Bitcoin Ratio: 0.03612 (-1.47%)
- Hash rate (7-day moving average): 1,095 EH/s
- Hashpris (spot): $49.79
- Total fee: 2.88 BTC/$325,474
- CME Futures Open Interest: 136,940 BTC
- Gold price BTC: 29.8 oz.
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 8.44%
Technical Analysis
- Earlier this week it fell badly out of the narrow price range and looks south.
- The price permeates Fibonacci retracement support of 23.6%, with a simple five-day moving average dropping, indicating a bearish bias.
- The focus is currently shifting to $3,591, at a Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%.
Crypto stocks
- Coinbase Global (Coin): Closed Wednesday at $321.77 (+0.53%), -1.37% at $317.37
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $131.58 (+0.47%), -0.3% closes at $131.18
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $34.29 (+3.47%), closed at -0.85% at $34
- Bullish (BLSH): $67.59 (-2.73%), closed at -1.97% at $66.26
- Mara Holdings (Mara): $17.64 (-0.4%), $17.52 at -0.68%
- Riot Platforms (Riot): $17.99 (+5.39%), closed at -0.89% at $17.83
- Core Scientific (CORZ): $17.01 (+0.06%), closed at -0.82% at $16.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): $14.45 (+3.88%), closed at -1.59% at $14.22
- Coinshares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): $45 (+4.9%), +1.71% at $45.77 at +1.71%
- Exodus Movement (Exod): $32 (+12.08%), $32.91 at +2.84%
Cryptocurrency company
- Strategy (MSTR): $323.31 (-1.36%), closed at -0.87% at $320.50
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $31.62 (-3.18%), +0.57% $31.80
- Sharplink Gaming (SBET): $17.58 (+3.35%), closed at -3.24% at $17.01
- upexi (upxi): $6.16 (-0.16%), closed at -3.57% at $5.94
- Lite Strategy (Lits): Closed at $2.7 (+2.66%)
ETF Flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily Net Flow: $241 million
- Cumulative net flow: $574.5 billion
- Total BTC holdings: 132 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily Net Flow: – $79.4 million
- Cumulative net flow: $13.64 billion
- Total ETH holdings: 6.6 million
Source: Farside Investors
While you’re asleep
- As US government shutdowns take risks, ether will be $4K, BTC, XRP slides. The federal agency is drafting an outstanding leave plan as Congress faces a deadline for passing the September 30 suspension funds.
- Stablecoin Issuer Circle examines “reversible” transactions at the time of Financial Times departure: Circle investigates the anti-wage class of the ARC blockchain to allow refunds, and although not yet released, it is developing a confidentiality feature that hides the amount of transactions.
- Nine European banks will join forces to issue plans UnicRedit, Danske Bank, Caixabank, SEB, KBC, Banca Sella, Dekabank and Raiffeisen to issue mica-compliant euro stability (Coindesk).
- Australia is about to file cryptography under a financial services framework with new draft laws (Coindesk). The bill requires crypto platforms to retain financial services licenses under the supervision of the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.
- If government shuts down, the White House Eyes will be making a new round of massive layoffs (New York Times): The White House memo ordered federal agencies to line up politically before the September 30th funding deadline and plan layoffs with Farlows targeting jobs that are considered escalating tensions.