Although Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $126,000 in early October, the altcoin market (excluding stablecoins) as measured by TradingView’s TOTAL2ES index remains below its November 2021 high of approximately $1.6 trillion, leaving the cycle-confirming test open for rotation beyond BTC.
TOTAL2ES continues to trade below that band until mid-October, meaning the altcoin has not made new highs this cycle, even though Bitcoin has.
Bitcoin managed to hit $1.48 trillion on the same day it hit its previous all-time high, $120 billion below its 2021 high, while Bitcoin smashed its 2021 high by 84%.
The near-term tape is being shaped by three forces that will determine whether this is a new high or just a prelude to a new high.
First, flows through US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain the clearest indicator of marginal demand. Farside’s consolidated table shows net creations and redemptions on a daily basis, making it easy to see the continuity of sustained inflows that have previously lined up with attempts at upside. Digital assets ETP hit a weekly record of around $5.95 billion in early October, providing a one-week snapshot of the massive demand that needs to be sustained to maintain high prices.
Second, liquidity and policy expectations interact with the crypto tape. The White House’s plan to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1 increases macro uncertainty, which spills over into risk assets and cryptocurrencies, with trade headlines coinciding with Bitcoin’s all-time high and fall.
Retailers and supply chains are bracing for new taxes, complicating inventory and pricing decisions close to the holiday season. At the same time, Fed officials are openly discussing another rate cut in October, and the probabilities implied by futures can be tracked on CME FedWatch. While dollar weakness based on dovish policy typically supports risks, new tightening does the opposite.
Third, dollar funding stress remains a real constraint. The Financial Times reported that use of the Fed’s standing repo facility, a permanent backstop for banks when short-term funding is tight, has surged in recent days. The rise in SRF uptake clearly indicates that dollar liquidity is constrained, and speculative capital flows tend to be suppressed until it weakens.
With these factors in mind, the market is switching between three forward paths that depend on ETF flows, option positioning, and USD liquidity.
The scenarios below illustrate what needs to happen next with either the top, the marginal extension, or the time spent building the top.
| scenario | Conditions to be aware of | Reasonable path and timing | Price range by model | Disable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| top is already included | US spot BTC ETFs have shown flat or negative net flows across multiple sessions (far side), 25 delta skew remains put-heavy on Deribit via Laevitas, and SRF usage is still rising, indicating tight USD liquidity (FT). | It ranges between 94,000 and 122,000 for several weeks, then breaks down with daily closings below about 108,000. | Applying a 35% to 55% drawdown band to an ATH of 126,000 ATH suggests a stress test trough of $82,000 to $57,000 and extracts a 12 to 18 month bear-length band from the previous cycle. | For 5-10 consecutive sessions, a wide range of ETFs experienced inflows and skew-flips to the calls, with the decisive daily close above $126.3K. |
| Late limit high price | Creation of multi-session ETFs, plus calming trade headlines around tariff paths, dovish Fed commentary and softening USD tone on FedWatch odds. | It goes through a high, short rejection, retest, and a few new tops before distribution. | $135,000 to $155,000 in Q4 as a measured moving band consistent with late-cycle growth of 7% to 23% above previous ATH. | Resurrection of net outflows and persistent put premiums on skew. |
| Expanded top building | Mixed ETF flows, implied volume included, outstanding tariffs, and intermittent SRF usage. | The market range until late November is $100,000 to $125,000, which is essentially the top of the time base and will postpone a clean challenge. | The second attempt has been postponed to early 2026, and its path will depend on whether flows expand beyond BTC. | A voluminous clean breakout or a sustained piece over several days. |
Drawdown stress test bands reflect cycle history. NYDIG cycle work shows deeper retracements of past bear markets, including about 57% after the 2017 peak and about 76% after the 2013-2014 peak. ETF wrappers and deeper spot liquidity argue for a potentially more moderate risk control range, although still a tight one.
What makes this moment different from altcoins is the lack of confirmation.
In previous bull markets, altcoin market caps eventually exceeded the previous cycle’s highs as risks rotated to the downside. Currently, TOTAL2 remains below the $1.63 trillion to $1.7 trillion range even after Bitcoin’s early October ATH.
This gap suggests either that ETF-driven inflows are concentrated in BTC for a longer period of time than in past cycles, or that macro liquidity is constraining capital turnover, reducing high-beta performance. A clean and objective rotation trigger is the weekly closing price of TOTAL2ES above that band.
Flow and derivative placement add texture to rotation tests. The surge in ETP subscriptions in early October was accompanied by widespread interest in BTC and ETH, with Solana and XRP also hitting high volume records.
If these inflows persist over multiple sessions of the daily ETF tape, the probability of a late marginal high increases. When a work stagnates or reverses, the conditions of circulation are strengthened.
On the options side, the 25-delta skew of Deribit tracked by Lavitas remains the simplest measure of whether downside insurance premiums will hold up after a macroshock. Shifts to call premium tend to precede the follow-through of upside breaks, while sustained put demand often dampens rallies.
On the supply side, miners are facing shrinking operating margins. Hashprice, the hashrate (a measure of miner revenue per PH per day), fell from around $50 to below $53 in October as the hashrate exceeded about 1 ZH per second, putting pressure on older fleets. Luxor’s hashrate index shows trends in real time, and further price declines, rising energy costs, or both could eclipse periodic miner selling, which could amplify the downside of the decline tape.
Cycle timing is consistent with normal post-halving cadence.
The peaks of the past two cycles were reached approximately 526 days after the halving in 2016 and 546 days after the halving in 2020. This translates to a half-life of April 20, 2024, which would place the historical peak window in mid-October to late November. The clock does not determine the outcome, but rather fixes the time frame in which flow and liquidity signals tend to be most important for risk.
The focus of this story is whether demand will grow in the ETF era, and whether liquidity conditions will ease enough to sustain that demand.
If multi-session creation returns, option skew heads towards calls, and SRF usage subsides, we could see a slight new BTC high in the $135,000-$155,000 range before distribution. If flows remain mixed or negative and put bidding continues, distribution channels become more important and stress test drawdown bands become a relevant risk management frame.
This cycle lacks classic altcoin confirmation and the tape will trade as such until TOTAL2ES closes above its 2021 high.
One interesting thing to note is that TOTAL2, which includes stablecoins, hit a new 2021 high of $20 billion on October 7th, reaching $1.77 trillion.
However, stablecoins on the sidelines are not indicative of an altcoin bull market, so we did not use this composite data in our analysis. In fact, the high value of parked stablecoins often comes from rotation away from risk assets.
