The long-awaited ALT season, the Bull Market phase where alternative cryptocurrencies (ALTCOINS) light up Bitcoin which could happen soon, and President Donald Trump is considering giving citizens a “tax dividend” in moves that could trigger more risky financial actions among recipients.
“They’re just starting to start,” Trump said of the tariffs in an interview with the American news network cited by the New York Post.
Trump said his main goal is to use his income to reduce federal debt. He also said that he might distribute some of the funds to Americans as a $2,000 rebate, what he described as “a dividend to the American people.”
Coupled with the expected Federal Reserve interest cuts, potential dividends could reduce household budget constraints and increase investments in Altcoins, which lag behind the biggest cryptocurrency this year.
The Coindesk 20 largest cryptocurrency index reached 48% in 2025, almost seven times the Coindesk 80 index for the next large token.
The trend towards increased risk-taking was explained in a 2023 research paper by Marco Diggio of Harvard Kennedy School. We found that more relaxed household budget constraints due to stimulus packages will increase crypto investment. The paper added that high expected inflation rates mean tight future budget constraints, increasing crypto investment, and consistent with hedging motivations.
There are also precedents.
Altcoins experienced a dramatic surge in 2020-21 as the government issued stimulus checks to support households during the coronavirus pandemic. These unexpected giveaways were primarily led to the crypto market, which led to a frenzy in the Altcoin market. Bitcoin’s share of control, or total crypto market capitalization, collapsed from 73% to 39% in the six months leading up to May 2021.
“In 2020, Crypto’s institutional rails were barely installed. There is no spot ETF, fragmented custody, or regulatory ambiguity,” wrote Jasper de Maere, OTC desk strategist at the leading market maker WinterMute, in a LinkedIn post. “Retail-led gatherings promoted by stimulus checks and [ultra high-net worth individual] Cash, 80-90% retail flows have enabled a rapid cascade from majors to altcoins. ”
It remains to be seen whether the potential tariff dividends on Americans have similar effects on expanding the bull run in the crypto market.
Crypto Market Profits this year – Total market capitalization is $3.4 billion versus about $4 trillion at the end of 2024, but is led primarily by other major tokens such as Bitcoin and ETH, SOL, BNB and XRP.
One of the Rose Altcoins is that US interest rates are rising above 4% when US interest rates are pinned at zero in 2020.
Another reason is the very large total crypto market capitalization itself that closes outrageous gatherings in the wider market.
“The higher fees and larger market capitalization mean that there are far fewer indiscriminate Altcoin gatherings,” De Maere said. Driven by authentic usefulness rather than predictive hype, the coming Alter Season is more selective, disciplined and requires rigorous analysis to separate from the steam engine from actual traction. ”