Several key indicators, including exchange supply and on-chain momentum, network activity and regulatory breakthroughs, are focusing on the Ripple token, sparking renewed optimism across the XRP community.
With supplies drying up and technical momentum building, analysts say the situation is similar to the start of the past multi-week bull market that pushed XRP to new highs.
5 reasons why XRP could reach $5 in Q4 2025
At the time of this writing, the XRP token is trading at $2.40, down almost 5% in the past 24 hours. However, some indicators suggest that further upside is possible and could reach the $5 mark. Such a move would represent a price move of 108.3% above the current price.
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Below are some possible reasons for the $5 price increase in XRP.
1. Foreign exchange balance hits record low
Data shared by market analyst Steph is Crypto, citing data from Glassnode, shows that over 216 million XRP (worth $556 million) was withdrawn from exchanges this week.
“Confidence is back!” the analyst wrote on Twitter, highlighting the historic decline in available supply.
Declining exchange balances often indicate that holders are moving their tokens into long-term storage, which is a sign of confidence ahead of a big price breakout.
Conversely, moving a token to an exchange often signals an intention to sell, resulting in bearish sentiment blocking any upside potential.
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2. On-chain momentum reflects 75% of rally setup
Additionally, trader Onur noted that XRP’s cumulative volume delta (CVD), an indicator that tracks buying and selling pressure, has turned bullish for the first time in months.
“A textbook cup-and-handle setup is forming, with a clean technical breakout pointing to $5,” he said. “The last time spot-taker CVD reversed this bull market, XRP rose 75% in a matter of weeks.”
He added that the combination of ETF speculation and on-chain accumulation could create a “window that bulls don’t want to ignore.”
3. Up to 3 months of network activity
Additionally, CryptoQuant data shows that active XRP addresses have reached their highest level since August, marking a three-month high. Notably, this level has historically preceded price increases, and if history rhymes or repeats, Ripple price could rise quickly.
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Increased user activity often reflects strengthening network demand and liquidity cycles, reinforcing on-chain bullish trends.
4. XRP ETF listing accelerates institutional buzz
Market sentiment received a further boost this week as 11 XRP ETF products were listed on the DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) website, a key step in the listing process prior to official approval.
Crypto analyst Schuyler called this an exclusive development, noting that the end of the U.S. government shutdown could lift approval for ETFs and open the floodgates for an influx of XRP institutional investors.
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Investors are viewing the DTCC listing as an early signal that the XRP ETF may be closer to fruition than expected, fueling the $5 price.
5. XRP’s dominance soars as Bitcoin falls
On the other hand, as of mid-November, XRP (XRP.D)’s market power is rapidly increasing, while Bitcoin (BTC.D) is declining. This shift suggests that investors are shifting to XRP as a hedge amid heightened market uncertainty.
Citing a JPMorgan study, one X user estimated that with only 3-5 billion Ripple tokens available on exchanges, up to $8 billion could flow into the XRP ETF in the first year alone. This dynamic has the potential to cause a “supply shock.”
In addition to these, it is also worth noting that the XRP community is still elated by the recent approval from BlackRock. XRP is heading into one of its most important quarters in years as technical charts align, ETF optimism grows, and foreign exchange reserves tighten.
If institutional capital inflows materialize and on-chain signals remain intact, XRP could begin a long-awaited breakout towards levels above $5 in Q4 2025. However, investors should always rely on their own research.