Bitcoin (BTC) will begin the first week of “Uptober” fresh from the newest ever-growing best. Next, what is in the store for BTC price action?
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Bitcoin will steal new records over the weekend, but traders are hoping to merge before heading towards $150,000.
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BTC Price Support Retest Target focuses on over $118,000.
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AI-based BTC price prediction tools can take some time for the profits of the classic bull market to become a reality.
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This week amid the US government shutdown, macroeconomic clues are expected to come from Federal Reserve officials.
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Crypto Market Sentiment simply avoids “extreme greed” by moving Bitcoin to the highest ever.
$150,000 becomes the new BTC price target
After an unusual weekend’s greatest ever, Bitcoin is consolidating near the top of its historic trading range to start the week.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that BTC/USD is trading around $124,000.
The start of futures trading created a “gap” that hardly appeared before filling trader’s Dern Crypto trade, known as “Classic weekend squeezes and retraces.”
“Bitcoin has ended up creating a relatively small gap on the CME futures chart, but nothing worth noting,” he wrote in the X-Post.
“There’s still a huge gap of $110,000 since last weekend, but we don’t value it until the price is within a few percent of it. There’s often a big gap between both CME charts and liquidity levels, especially when this trend continues to discover prices.”
For fellow trader Crypto Tony, the target for rising BTC prices is at $123,000.
It was closed at over $123,000 each week. Now the bull must hold this level for its sustained bullishness. pic.twitter.com/kn0vj2dxfl
– Crypto Tony (@cryptotony__) October 6, 2025
“$BTC is currently reaching significant resistance levels,” continued Crypto analysts and entrepreneur Ted Pillow.
“Bitcoin pushed beyond this level yesterday, but the move was completely driven. If the institution bids again like last week, it’s possible to collect it.”
Zooming out, there’s a higher level of appetite, and Cointelgraf next reports forecasts of over $150,000.
good morning!#bitcoinA new Leg Higher is ongoing, starting with a new ATH and a new best weekly end.
Next goal: $150,000. pic.twitter.com/p5ejqusjdr
– jelle (@cryptojellenl) October 6, 2025
Crypto Trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël Vande Poppe argued that the $150,000 mark should come after the integration phase.
“I don’t think #bitcoin will blow up the ATH in one go. It takes a bit of patience before it continues to move,” he told X-follower on Monday.
“On that front, we hope to see a fix, and what’s under $121.5k is a good area to get into before heading towards $150,000.”
Bitcoin traders see a 4% drop
As reported by Cointelegraph, market participants still expect BTC price retreats to occur from record levels.
Bull runs do not rise in the straight, achieving a key target for support retesting.
Among them is the 50th term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) over a four-hour time frame at the time of writing. This is $119,250, and is rising rapidly.
“I think we can see the 4H50EMA retest a week ago. It’s over-expanded and we can see the retest with a similar price action from before,” Trader Crypnuevo wrote in X-thread on Sunday.
“We’ll then need to make sure the new movement rises. So I’m still favoring the long shorts over the 4H50EMA.”
The accompanying chart highlighted the outcome of its interaction with EMA since its launch in May.
Meanwhile, trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that it was unreasonable to expect prices to launch into unknown territory without first establishing support at the top of that range.
“It’s not surprising that Bitcoin refused from ~$120,000 when he first asked about this uptrend. After all, when Bitcoin last refused from $124K, the rejection preceded a -13% pullback,” he told X-followers over the weekend.
“Bitcoin needs to prove that this $124,000 resistance is a weakness in rejection. A shallow dip or pullback from here will do just that.”
Rekt Capital suggested that a 4% DIP to meet the upward trend line of around $118,000 means that Bitcoin is “still placed for additional benefits later.”
“I don’t want to see the price lose $117K-$118K again. This was almost in the mid-range and a very large area,” Daan Crypto said in Monday’s X update.
“The overall structure looks good. We need to maintain a higher and higher lows from now on. If this starts again in the 112k to 124,000 dollar range, it’s not great for a bigger view than I think.”
ai is already bitcoin “uptober”
Amid the rise in excitement for the next innings of Crypto Bull Run, a new style of forecasting tool could disappoint those who are hoping for quick profits.
In one of the “QuickTake” blog posts on Monday, Cryptocant from Onchain Analytics Platform raised questions about how “Uptotber” would form.
“After a significant uptrend, prices have entered the integration phase between key support at 108,000 and 123,000 resistance,” contributor CryptoonChain summed.
“This price action on the technical chart shows signs of a ‘re-accumulation’ period. Meanwhile, large market players may be accumulating their positions for the next major move. ”
BTC/USD was surprised at the new all-time highs over the weekend, but despite this, there is no risk of the rest of the month not meeting expectations.
According to Cryptoquant, the proof comes from AI. Its unique prediction tool, Nbeats Ensemble, collects data from nearly 400 “Onchain features,” but says the odds for the October BTC price breakout are “low.”
“Model predictions are about continuous variation within current range. However, there are subtle yet important nuances to this prediction. The model expects these variations to occur primarily in the upper half of the range,” Post said.
Therefore, Bitcoin will have to spend several weeks preparing a resistance breakout. Hodler, on the other hand, needs patience.
“By combining technical analysis with AI model predictions, the most likely scenario for October 2025 is the continuation of Bitcoin’s neutral range-bound movement,” concluded Cryptoquant.
“Traders need to closely monitor support levels of 108,000 and resistance of 123,000, as they can define the next medium-term directional movement with either level of decisive break.”
Fed officials to speak to shut down data
The ongoing US government closure will be added to the list of macroeconomic data that was delayed this week.
It will be an interesting round by senior Federal Reserve officials.
They include SEC Chair Jerome Powell, who made a welcome statement at the Community Banks conference in Washington. Director’s vice-chairman Michelle Bowman will appear twice at the event.
Powell has long been pressured by US President Donald Trump to speed up interest cuts.
The lack of data, particularly related to weakening the labor market, creates friction. The Fed’s next rate will be approximately three weeks away.
“The market is looking forward to the Federal Reserve meetings in October and December amidst the closure,” Kobeissi’s letter summed up in an X-thread.
For crypto and risk assetbles, there is a tailwind. Sources claim that the closure is likely to remain “non-event” for the market, and with six months of successive profits on US stocks, there are less and less reasons to doubt the uptrend.
“The stock market continues to climb into the “wall wall.” Trading Resources Mosaic Asset Company writes in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, Market Mosaic.
“Despite concerns over labor market health and the economic impact of government shutdowns, the S&P 500 has hovered near record highs and has spent 108 days of trading above the 50-day moving average.”
Among the risks to the strength of risk-on-rally, the mosaic highlighted the possibility of rebounding the strength of the US dollar, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The index is struggling to rebound after reaching 96.22 in mid-September. This is the lowest level since February 2022.
You’re greedy, but aren’t you too greedy?
In just 10 days, Crypto Market Sentiment turned his head over, but the traders kept them cool at their highest height ever.
Related: Bitcoin could move to $150,000 “very fast”, Altseason suspect: Hodler’s Digest, September 28th – October 4th
The latest measurements from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show that while “greed” is currently dominant, excessive emotions have not yet entered the market.
On Sunday, the index hit the 74/100 local highs and started the week back to 71/100 outside the “extreme greed” zone.
These levels still represent a triple increase from the 26/100 lowest seen on September 26.
To reference the all-time highs of Bitcoin in mid-August, we provided a 75/100 peak fear and greedy index reading, venting narrowly with the price on a trip to $125,700.
Elsewhere, this time we’ve closely tracked the late September lows and subsequent rebounds with another sentiment measurement this time from Alphractal on the Crypto Analytics platform.
This is the most accurate sentiment analysis metric I know of in the crypto market.
The fear and greedy index produces some noise, but this is a pure alpha of emotions from the analysts who set the top and bottom of Bitcoin.chart: @alphractal pic.twitter.com/ofr9kzv4um
– Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) October 3, 2025
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.