Bitcoin prices traded below $104,000 today after briefly regaining $106,000 earlier in the week as traders weighed a mix of macro tailwinds and technical headwinds, including President Donald Trump’s plan to send $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks to Americans.
The policy, announced Sunday on Truth Social, would use record tariff revenues to pay out cash rebates to most Americans.
The president said the program would return “trillions of dollars” collected in trade tariffs and ultimately help pay down the nation’s $37 trillion debt. But the market sees this as a new injection of liquidity, a kind of 2025 reboot of the 2020-era stimulus that sparked Bitcoin’s last bull market.
Cryptocurrency traders quickly began drawing parallels. “Rate cuts, record highs, AI and stimulus checks are nerve-wracking,” analysts say. Kobessi’s letter wrote X, but some Bitcoin commentators joked that the days of “free Bitcoin” were back.
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is $103,459.
Meanwhile, Senate Democrats joined Republicans in approving a funding measure to restart the federal government, which is now likely to pass in the House by a 60-40 majority, although they failed to secure an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced subsidies.
The deal, expected to be signed by President Trump, would end a 41-day government shutdown and restore federal services and workers’ wages, but it has sparked intra-party debate within Democrats.
Technical structure of Bitcoin price
This timing comes at a time when the technical structure of Bitcoin price is in a delicate balance between recovery and resistance. The $99,000 level continues to serve as a strong support floor, reinforced by the 55-week exponential moving average.
On the upside, Fibonacci resistance remains at $109,400, with an even larger wall near $111,000. A break above $116,000 could open the door for another move towards $129,000, the top of the expanding wedge pattern in Bitcoin price.
Institutional interest remains strong. Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, revealed last week that it had purchased 487 BTC for $49.9 million, bringing its total holdings to more than 641,000 coins, worth about $47.5 billion.
Macro conditions are also providing support. The Nasdaq’s strength has spilled over into the crypto market as hopes for an end to the U.S. government shutdown boosted risk assets.
However, renewed dysfunction in Washington could weigh on sentiment and a return to volatility could push Bitcoin back toward the lower support at $96,000 or even $93,000.
Underneath the price movement, structural factors in derivatives and ETF flows continue to shape Bitcoin price trajectory. Widening futures premiums typically drain coins from exchanges, tightening supply, while compressed basis and negative funding can unwind positions and put pressure on spot prices.
So far, the basis has hovered around 5% to 5.5%, which is enough to sustain a carry trade, but is susceptible to changes in collateral conditions and ETF outflows. After about $1 billion was drained from Bitcoin ETFs in early November, traders are eyeing a new turn that could reverse hedging flows and impact spot liquidity.
Despite near-term uncertainty, structural signals remain bullish. Rising production costs and a widening pool of long-term investors suggest the next bear market could be shallower than previous cycles.
Only 5% of the total Bitcoin supply remains to be mined before the halving in 2028, increasing scarcity as macro liquidity could expand again.