Written by Omkar Godbole (all times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
Cryptocurrency market is back in the red with Bitcoin It is showing signs of what Forex traders call “CHoCH”, or a change in personality. In this case, we are leaning bearish.
Bitcoin bulls have dominated the options market since last October, with Deribit racking up over $100,000 in calls and pushing those strikes to the top of the open interest leaderboard. Fast forward to today, and the change is clear.
The $95,000 put option has $1.80 billion in open interest, only slightly less than the $1.85 billion locked in by the most popular option, the $140,000 call. Strike puts $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000 also include open interest of $1.4 billion to $1.55 billion.
This change in character signals an evolving market attitude toward risk. This is more than just a technical term, it’s a tool traders use to spot potential trend reversals. An uptrend occurs when price falls below a previous swing low, indicating that the bullish march may be losing momentum.
That is certainly the case with BTC, whose spot price recently fell below $107,250, below its low since early September. This move invalidated the bullish higher high, higher low pattern. The bulls tried to recover today but were unsuccessful and the change strengthened.
result? BTC price is trading around $105,000, down 1% in the past 24 hours. Major altcoins such as Ether , and BNB recording significant losses, with the CoinDesk 20 index falling more than 2%.
Indices related to meme coins, computing, and smart contract tokens (excluding Ether) all fell, indicating broader market weakness. The DeFi Select index stood out with a 6% rise, largely due to a 23% surge in its largest component, Uniswap’s UNI token.
The UNI rally occurred after Hayden Adams, the protocol’s founder, proposed a plan to enable protocol fees and use those fees to burn UNI tokens, removing 100 million UNI from the treasury and shifting the model to deflation.
In other important news, the U.S. Treasury and IRS announced new guidelines that open the door to crypto products traded on Wall Street to generate staking yields for investors.
In traditional markets, there is growing concern about declining stock prices for business development companies like Blue Owl Capital (OWL) despite overall market strength. To some observers, the decline signals the woes of the highest-yielding, riskiest private credit sector. Be alert!
More information: For an analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today.
what to see
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- cryptography
- macro
- Nov. 11, 7 a.m.: Brazil October Inflation. Expected year-on-year headline rate of 4.75%, month-on-month estimate. 0.16%.
- November 11, 8:15am: ADP Employment Change Weekly (previously 14.25K).
- revenue (estimated based on FactSet data)
token event
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Uniswap is voting on GFX Labs’ proposal to create a “Community Suggestion Factory” (CPF), a sub-DAO designed to lower governance barriers. Voting ends on November 11th.
- unlock
- November 11th: Frees up 2.11% of circulating supply worth $32.35 million.
- Activate token
- November 11th: ADIX is listed on Gate.
- November 11: KuCoin discontinues spot pre-market products.
conference
For a more comprehensive list of this week’s events, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
market movements
- BTC fell 0.59% to $104,994.61 since 4:00 PM ET on Monday (24h: -0.78%).
- ETH rose 0.4 to $3,555.25 (24 hours: -1.06%)
- CoinDesk 20 fell 1.08% to 3,424.67 (24h: -1.92%)
- Ether CESR comprehensive staking interest rate increases by 4bps to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is -0.00013% (-0.3132% p.a.) on Binance.
- DXY remains unchanged at 99.58
- Gold futures rose 0.58% to $4,146.00.
- Silver futures rose 0.88% to $50.76.
- The Nikkei 225 closed 0.14% lower at 50,842.93.
- The Hang Seng rose 0.18% to close at 26,696.41.
- FTSE rose 0.84% to 9,868.88.
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.5% to 5,692.52.
- The DJIA rose 0.81% to close at 47,368.63 on Monday.
- The S&P 500 index rose 1.54% to close at 6,832.43.
- The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.27% to end at 23,527.17.
- The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 1.35% to end at 30,316.63.
- The S&P 40 Latin America Index rose 0.73% to end at 3,107.50.
- The US 10-year Treasury rate rose 2.9bps to 4.122%.
- E-mini S&P 500 futures fell 0.19% to 6,843.75.
- E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.34% to 25,626.75.
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average stock price unchanged 47,449.00
bitcoin statistics
- BTC Dominance: 60.02% (0.14%)
- Ether to Bitcoin ratio: 0.03398 (0.96%)
- Hashrate (7-day moving average): 1,054 EH/s
- Hash Price (Spot): $42.79
- Total fees: 3.85 BTC / $408,527
- CME futures open interest: 137,570 BTC
- BTC Gold Price: 25oz
- BTC vs. Gold Market Cap: 7.04%
technical analysis
- The Ether to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio remains stuck in a descending channel, suggesting Ether’s performance is deteriorating.
- Traders need to be aware of a potential breakout. This is because such a move would mean increased bias against Ether and the broader altcoin market.
crypto assets
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Monday close $317.93 (+2.84%), pre-market -1.11% $314.40
- Circle Internet (CRCL): $104.1 (+0.93%), -0.85% to end at $103.22
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): $31.79 (+0.73%), -1.23% to close at $31.40.
- Bullish (BLSH): $46.59 (+3.35%), -0.32% to close at $46.44
- MARA Holdings (MARA): $15.58 (-1.83%), -0.58% to close at $15.49.
- Riot Platform (RIOT): $17.32 (+1.82%), -0.81% to end at $17.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $19.29 (-4.46%), -2.33% at $18.84
- CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $15.03 (-3.47%), -5.52% at $14.20
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Ended at $53.58 (-2.74%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $21.86 (+1.11%), -3.02% at $21.20
crypto asset company
- Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $238.88 (-1.26%), -1.31% at $235.75
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): $29.27 (+6.05%), +1.40% to end at $29.68
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): unchanged from pre-market, closing at $11.95 (-0.08%)
- Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $3.35 (+1.36%)
- Light Strategy (LITS): Closed at $2.26 (+7.62%)
ETF flow
Spot BTC ETF
- Daily net flow: $1.2 million
- Cumulative net flow: $59.95 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.33 million
Spot ETH ETF
- Daily net flow: $0 million
- Cumulative net flow: $13.88 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~6.56 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
- Bitcoin’s $588 Billion Range Masks Market Vulnerabilities: 10x Research (CoinDesk): 10x Research’s Markus Thielen said approximately 5.9 million coins traded at prices between $100,000 and $126,000, with many recent buyers exposed to a drop of less than $100,000 towards a $93,000 liquidity gap.
- Diversification, not hype, drives digital asset investing: Signum (CoinDesk): Research shows professional allocators prefer actively managed multi-coin portfolios over single-token staking, and more than 70% would increase their ETF exposure if staking support received regulatory approval.
- Gold Gains Gains on U.S. Fiscal Concerns and Expectations for Interest Rate Cuts (Bloomberg): The precious metal hovered around $4,140 after the government’s restart deal set up the release of a long-delayed report expected to show slower growth and strengthen the case for lower borrowing costs.
- Market predicts end of U.S. government shutdown will be days away as health care battle looms (CoinDesk): At Polymarket, traders are projecting a 96% chance that the federal government will reopen between November 12 and 15, in line with expectations for a House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.
- Gemini misses profit estimates in first report since IPO (CoinDesk): Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Space Station (GEMI) reported a loss of $6.67 per share in the third quarter, as heavy marketing and IPO costs weighed on profits, even as sales doubled to $50.6 million.