Bitcoin’s weakness in October could be setting the stage for a year-end rebound in the so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” which has historically pushed crypto markets higher in December.
Bitcoin has finished in the green for six of the last eight Decembers, rising between 8% and 46%, according to data from Coinglass, showing consistent seasonal tailwinds for the world’s largest digital asset.
“We are observing a shift from panic selling to strategic accumulation by long-term holders…This recovery trajectory, strengthened by expected Fed rate cuts and institutional implementation, positions the market for a strong Santa rally,” LVRG Research Director Nick Luck said in a Telegram message.
The “Santa Rally” is when Bitcoin tends to rise in December as traders take optimistic year-end positions and light holiday trading, amplifying price movements. Historically, most years have ended the month on a high, sometimes with huge double-digit gains.
This pattern reflects market seasonality, with prices following regular calendar trends driven by investor sentiment, tax planning, and portfolio adjustments. In cryptocurrencies, traders typically look ahead to the new year, marking a shift from profit-taking to new accumulation, setting the tone for risk appetite and liquidity across the broader digital asset market.
customs dividend
Analysts point to U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to float $2,000 stimulus checks based on tariff dividends, which some observers say could be reminiscent of coronavirus-era rallies.
“President Trump directly presented a new stimulus package to the public in the form of a $2,000 tariff dividend, along with a new 50-year mortgage to improve housing affordability,” said Augustin Huang, Head of Insights at Signal Plus.
“The ‘tariff dividend’ is reminiscent of the coronavirus relief checks, which were a direct and effective money printing stimulus, but ultra-long-term mortgages will improve housing affordability and add additional capital leverage to the system,” Huang added.
Both of these measures should be seen as a new form of liquidity easing, which should be positive for risk assets overall, and are being treated as such for now, Huang explained.
New volume structure
Some argue that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of volatility, not due to memetic speculation or retail mania, but due to deeper structural changes in liquidity and leverage.
“Bitcoin volatility in 2026 is likely to remain structurally high, although for different reasons than in past cycles,” SynFutures co-founder and CEO Rachel Lin said in an email. “What we are seeing now is a maturing of Bitcoin volatility. It is less about speculative hype and more about how institutional investor flows, liquidity conditions, and derivatives positioning interact within a tighter global financial framework.”
“From a macro lens, the two variables to watch are global liquidity and real interest rates. The historical 0.6-0.7 correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. liquidity indicators (such as Fed balance sheet and M2 growth) is likely due to tariff-driven inflation.” If global central banks suspend easing or re-tighten in 2026, amid (a scenario flagged by the IMF and BIS), this suggests that price volatility could re-emerge “soon,” Lin added.
The 2025 setting looks similar. Bitcoin After a volatile October, it is down about 3% so far in November, but on-chain data shows accumulation by smaller holders while large wallets remain on the sidelines.
Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC have been net short for three months, continuing to unwind positions established by ETF inflows in the first quarter. Meanwhile, small investors holding less than 1,000 BTC are quietly adding to their stacks, offsetting some of the selling pressure.
If historical seasonality holds and President Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend could shake up liquidity again, the crypto market could once again follow the well-worn path of December. Quiet skepticism gives way to year-end euphoria.