Important points
How much has the new Bitcoin whale lost recently?
The new Bitcoin whale posted more than $1 billion in losses from October 28th to November 8th, with November 7th being the worst single day.
What is the risk of a decline in Bitcoin price?
With a new whale in the water and weak technical momentum, the risk of panic selling increases if BTC is unable to regain the key break-even level of $110,800.
New Bitcoin whales have realized losses of over $1 billion over the past week as BTC trades below its average cost base of $110,800.
The huge losses have raised concerns about a potential capitulation from recent large buyers who piled in at high prices.
CryptoQuant data shows significant daily losses in newly caught whales since October 28th. The worst day was November 7th, when the new whale lost $515.1 million in one session.
Source: CryptoQuant
A loss of $286.4 million was reported on November 4, followed by a loss of $107.5 million on November 6, and a loss of $90.7 million on November 5.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,000, about 4.4% below the new whale’s cost basis. This underwater position creates pressure on the population that accumulates heavily throughout 2025.
Accumulation of new Bitcoin whales will explode in 2025
According to the data, active Bitcoin whale addresses in the past 24 hours have exploded from around 150,000 BTC in early 2024 to more than 450,000 BTC today.
This 3x increase marks an unprecedented accumulation by new large holders while Bitcoin rallied towards October’s all-time high of $126,296.
Source: CryptoQuant
These new whales were aggressive buyers as Bitcoin soared to over $110,000. Now, as prices are falling, we face increasing unrealized losses on top of the realized losses we have already incurred.
For those who arrive late, the timing proves to be bad. Old whales are locking in profits at recent highs, while new whales are piling up.
This disconnect between experienced and new large holders could signal trouble if this trend continues.
Increased risk of surrender
The key questions now center on whether the new whales will survive the losses and hold on, or whether they will surrender.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 on November 4th for the first time since June. The drop to $99,966 represented a 21% drop from the October peak.
Source: TradingView
BTC has since recovered to $106,000, but the price remains below the critical $110,800 level, and new whales will need Bitcoin to trade at breakeven.
Technical indicators indicate weak momentum. The Money Flow Index is 43.15, indicating no strong buying or selling pressure.
Whale flow data has shown 0M in recent significant movements, suggesting large holders remain inactive and potentially indecisive.
what happens next
The new whale has to make a difficult decision. They can hold on to their current losses and wait for Bitcoin to regain $110,800, or they can cut their losses and sell, triggering a series of liquidations.
The $110,800 level is currently acting as a key resistance level. Bitcoin needs to break above this price to reduce the pressure on new whales and restore the confidence of recent large buyers.
Otherwise, the risk of capitulation selling increases and the price may fall significantly.
For now, the data shows that the new whales are “feeling the heat,” as CryptoQuant noted, with losses mounting and prices showing less urgency to recover beyond break-even.