Important points:
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Bitcoin’s double bottom pattern could increase bullish momentum towards $110,000.
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The CME gap near $104,000 could trigger a short-term retracement.
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Stablecoin accumulation and short-term holder stress suggest short-term volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a classic double-dip pattern over the weekend, with BTC securing a bullish weekly closing price above its 50-week moving average. This formation coincided with a daily order block between $98,100 and $102,000, and BTC repeatedly tested the $100,000 zone before rebounding.
After a bullish structural break on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently facing resistance near $111,300, but this level could be tested if short-term momentum holds. However, on-chain data suggests that this progress may not be achieved so easily.
Glassnode explained that Bitcoin has recovered from its 75th percentile cost base of nearly $100,000. The next significant hurdle is at the 85th percentile on a cost basis, around $108,500. This is a level that has historically acted as a resistance line during recovery movements. Percentile cost-based metrics measure where the majority of investors acquired their BTC, effectively mapping the cost distribution across the market.
However, Cointelegraph noted that long-side liquidity has been depleted near $100,000, with potential liquidity gains above $115,000, which coincides with the daily resistance level.
Additionally, the CME gap between $103,100 and $104,000 remains a significant short-term risk. CME gaps occur when Bitcoin’s weekend price movements create a difference between Friday’s closing price and Monday’s opening price on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, and these gaps often “fill in” as traders revisit these levels, suggesting that BTC may temporarily reverse before resuming its uptrend.
With liquidity and participation waning, BTC could retest the weekend 1-hour and 4-hour order blocks and revisit $101,000-102,500 before making a definitive move higher.
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Stablecoin strength could shape BTC’s near-term outlook
According to data from CryptoQuant, the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has plummeted from over 18 earlier this year to 13.1, one of its lowest levels in 2025. This decline indicates an increase in stablecoin reserves relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization and is a sign of an accumulation of off-chain liquidity awaiting market signals.
Over the past month, SSR has declined from 15 to 13, while BTC has been hovering around $105,000, suggesting that buyers are waiting for confirmation before committing funds.
Conversely, cryptocurrency analyst Dirkforst observed a 40% jump in short-term holder (STH) inflows to Binance from 5,000 BTC to 8,700 BTC since September. STH’s realized price is around $112,000, with much of it still underwater and increasingly sensitive to short-term volatility. Selling pressure in this group often precedes a mid-cycle shakeout and a broader bullish continuation, adding a layer of short-term volatility.
Related: Bitcoin outflows $1.7 billion from ETH ETF, but whale purchases ease impact on price
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.