Important points
Is Bitcoin nearing the bottom?
Analyst Burak Kesmeci’s realized price gradient oscillator fell to -1.27 STDV, a level that historically precedes a trend reversal.
What is holding BTC back?
Spot-taker CVD remained in the red, exchange whale ratio reached 0.59, and open interest rose, indicating seller advantage despite rebound signals.
Since reaching $116,000 at the end of October, Bitcoin has [BTC] Three times it was below $100,000. At the time of writing, BTC is down 8% on the weekly chart, trading at $101,839, evidence of sustained bearish pressure.
Amid this market decline, crypto analysts have been fiercely debating the futures trend of Bitcoin. Burak Kesmesi, an analyst at CryptoQuant, is among those who believe that the correction may be nearing an end, suggesting a recovery is possible.
The oscillator suggests the maturation of the cooldown phase
According to Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s correction phase may be nearing an end.
Kesmeci’s analysis showed that the 90-day realized price gradient oscillator has declined to the -1.27 STDV level. Historically, when this indicator fell below -1 STDV, Bitcoin would often turn higher.
Source: CryptoQuant
This drop indicates an extreme cooldown, indicating that the correction phase is nearing completion and BTC is on the verge of recovery.
For example, this indicator has fallen to this level before. The first instance saw BTC rise from $82,000 to $110,000, and the second instance saw BTC rise from $108,000 to $124,000.
Therefore, if historical patterns are to be followed, these levels could signal a local bottom and a rebound could be visible.
Spot traders continue to dominate sellers
Although Kesmeci observed signals of potential market recovery, Bitcoin’s structure remained overly bearish. As a result, the spot market became stagnant due to increased sell-side activity, leading to over-reliance on derivatives.
Spottaker CVD has remained in the red throughout the past week, indicating consistent selling dominance. Sellers appear to be locking in profits or exiting positions to limit losses.
Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, the exchange whale ratio rose to 0.59 at the time of writing, the highest in three weeks. This suggests that whales are depositing their BTC on exchanges, a move that often precedes a major decline.
Source: CryptoQuant
In the derivatives sector, funding rates remained positive and open interest increased by $700 million, from $33.6 billion to $34.3 billion.
Source: CryptoQuant
If the OI increases and the funding rate remains positive while the spot is sold, it indicates an unstable market structure caused by leverage.
Thus, leveraged traders were actively fighting spot pressure, which is often a warning signal of a continuation of a downtrend or a possible liquidation event.
BTC at a crossroads
According to AMBCrypto, Bitcoin remains stuck amid bearish sentiment in the spot market, especially among whales.
Although the spot market showed clearly bearish sentiment, derivatives trading reflected the optimistic view of leveraged traders.
If the bearishness continues, BTC could retest $98,000. However, a short-term rebound towards $107,456 remains possible if the realized price gradient oscillator causes another reversal.