Gemini plans to introduce new products to the prediction market. This means people will be able to make informed bets on real-life events.
For Gemini, entering the prediction market is an important step towards opening up a larger market.
Applying for CFTC approval
Gemini applied for designated contract market (DCM) approval from the CFTC in May. This approval allows the company to launch and operate prediction market contracts in a legally compliant manner.
🚨 Just in: According to Bloomberg, Gemini is preparing to offer prediction market contracts. pic.twitter.com/5uxsEU0Fqi
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 5, 2025
However, this step is not quick. It can take months or even years to get the green light from the CFTC. The current U.S. government shutdown may result in further delays. Still, Gemini is talking about launching the product as soon as it is approved.
A field crowded with competitors
Gemini’s move puts the company in direct competition with major prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Karshi is fully registered with the CFTC and Polymarket plans to reopen in the U.S. soon after regulatory adjustments. Other companies are also getting involved. For example, Robinhood currently offers event contracts from Karshi.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The CFTC has granted approval to Polymarket to operate a cryptocurrency prediction market in the United States. pic.twitter.com/SmELwUHEpz
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) September 3, 2025
Meanwhile, Gemini’s biggest cryptocurrency rival, Coinbase, has also signaled plans to join Gemini. In a recent earnings call, Coinbase said it aims to be an Everything Exchange. We offer cryptocurrencies and event-based contracts.
A risky but promising bet
The fact that Gemini has decided to enter the prediction market is timely. The company’s stock price has fallen about 40% since its IPO in September, and it remains a loss-making company. By expanding into new markets, Gemini hopes to create new opportunities for growth and relevance.
News: Cryptocurrency company Gemini Space Station $GEMI will soon launch predictive contract trading, an increasingly crowded field.
and @Olga Calif @antoniabmassa @nicola_m_white: pic.twitter.com/wPE4vPddCs
— Lydia Beyoud (@ElleBeyoud) November 4, 2025
Analysts say prediction markets could be a wise choice. Needham analysts said this is an “attractive opportunity” for Gemini to expand beyond cryptocurrencies.
conclusion
Gemini’s entry into the prediction market shows how crypto exchanges are expanding their options. If approved, it could become a major participant in a sector that combines finance, data and foresight.
Meanwhile, the CFTC’s decision is under scrutiny. If Gemini gets the green light, it could become one of the first companies to make a breakthrough between blockchain and real-world prediction.
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