Important points:
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Long-term Bitcoin holders have sold 400,000 BTC in the past 30 days.
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Short-term Bitcoin holders panicked and sold $3 billion worth of Bitcoin at a loss.
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Traders say BTC could fall as low as $60,000, with Bitcoin’s rising wedge targeting a price of $72,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell on Tuesday, trading at $104,000, down more than 3.5% in the past 24 hours. This results in a weekly loss of 8% and a 30-day loss of 17%.
This drawdown involves selling from long-term holders who have offloaded over 400,000 BTC over the past month.
Long-term Bitcoin holders sell $42 billion of BTC
Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), entities that hold their coins for at least six months without selling, were offloaded after the BTC price hit a new all-time high of over $126,000 in early October.
Related: Cryptocurrency whales that took advantage of October’s crash start longing $55 million in BTC and ETH
Analyzing the changes in LTH supply, CryptoQuant analyst Martun said there has been a net decrease in supply of 405,00 BTC on a 30-day rolling basis, equivalent to approximately $42.3 billion at market price as of Tuesday.
This represents “nearly 2% of total supply,” crypto market commentator TFTC said in response to Martun’s analysis, adding:
“Bitcoin is in the distribution stage of material supply, and the price remains strong above $100,000.”
“The fact that the market can absorb this much selling pressure without losing 30% to 50% is a positive signal for Bitcoin,” said TFTC founder Marty Bent.
However, short-term holders were also under pressure as they transferred more than 26,800 BTC (equivalent to about $3 billion) to exchanges at a loss over the past three days.
🚨 Surrender of short-term holders
28,600 BTC ($2.98 billion) is transferred to the exchange at a loss by STH. pic.twitter.com/zLmfE0lzhp
— Maartun (@JA_Maartun) November 4, 2025
This activity highlights a common pattern of behavior in which STH, often referred to as “weak hands,” tend to panic sell during market declines, often realizing losses.
As reported by Cointelegraph, short-term holders are currently facing mounting unrealized losses and are likely to continue selling if the downtrend continues.
Bitcoin’s falling wedge pattern targets $72,000
The weekly chart shows that the BTC/USD pair is validating a descending wedge after price lost support at $114,550, the lower trendline of the pattern.
Bulls are currently struggling to keep the price above its 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which is currently $103,300.
Other important lines of defense are the psychological level at $100,000 and the 100-week SMA at $82,000.
A weekly close below this area would clear the way for BTC to fall towards the $72,000 wedge target, which represents a 30% decline from the current price.
Bitcoin’s bearish turn is preceded by a widening bearish divergence between its price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The weekly chart above shows that the BTC/USD pair rose from mid-July to early October, forming higher lows. However, over the same period, the weekly RSI fell from 70 to 45, resulting in lower lows, as shown in the weekly chart above.
A divergence between rising prices and falling RSI usually indicates weakness in the prevailing uptrend, prompting traders to sell further at local highs as profit-taking intensifies and buyers begin to dry up.
Technical analyst JDK Analysis asked veteran trader Peter Brandt for his opinion on how far Bitcoin prices could fall using a power law model.
Peter Brandt responded that Bitcoin could bottom at the model’s “top green band” of around $60,000, adding:
“I hope you’re right that we’re not at the top yet.”
As reported by Cointelegraph, cryptocurrency sentiment plummeted into the “extreme fear” zone at 9pm after Bitcoin fell below $104,000, with calls for BTC prices to drop below $100,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.