- Bitcoin is undergoing a steady redistribution of supply, with long-term holders selling and new investors buying when it falls.
- This process mirrors a company’s IPO, with early believers cashing out while long-term holders accumulate, leading to a broader distribution of ownership.
- Bitcoin’s current sideways movement reflects the typical consolidation phase after a significant market event, despite widespread attempts to rally.
- Despite strong support for Bitcoin’s fundamentals, including ETF approval and rising hashrate, market sentiment remains cautious.
- The ongoing “IPO” cycle could last several months, resulting in lower Bitcoin volatility and a more stable ownership base.
Bitcoin may be in the midst of a unique recirculation phase similar to an initial coin offering (ICO), according to veteran macro analyst and Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser. As long-term Bitcoin holders, some of whom have had their tokens dormant for years, begin to move their coins around, a broader supply distribution is forming, signaling a potential tipping point in the asset’s market dynamics.
In a recent episode of Entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano’s podcast and in-depth post on Substack, Visser noted that these dormant coins are gradually re-entering the market as new investors take advantage of the dip and accumulate. “In traditional markets, this is similar to a company’s IPO: early believers put in cash, founders get rich, and venture capitalists pass the profits back to investors,” he explained.
“The excitement of concentration is giving way to sustainability of distribution. Early believers are buying at higher prices and passing the torch to long-term holders with different motivations. This is what success looks like. This is a Bitcoin IPO.”
Bitcoin shows signs of sideways consolidation
Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has fluctuated between approximately $106,786 and $115,957. Visser points out that such consolidations often occur during a company’s IPO, when early investors start selling, and even during broader market rebounds. This cautious approach by new holders, who are moving cautiously while accumulating coins, is indicative of the wait-and-see attitude of market participants.
“The result? It’s a sideways grind that everyone is into,” Visser said. “Fundamentals are strong and the overall market is rising, but Bitcoin is just sitting there. This frustrating consolidation pattern is typically followed by a lock-up period expiring after a major IPO, with early investors selling and long-term holders slowly accumulating, thereby shifting ownership from visionaries to institutional investors.”
Crypto market sentiment remains resilient
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key indicator of market sentiment towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, has been showing fear since mid-week. Nevertheless, Visser emphasizes that confidence in Bitcoin remains intact, supported by continued ETF approvals, record network hash rates, and growing stablecoin adoption.
Visser added: “In a bear market, we expect the price to crash, which is what everyone wants. However, Bitcoin is actually consolidating. Not every push is being bought and making new lows. The fact that it’s holding its own shows resilience.” He also highlighted the ongoing transfer of ownership from speculative early investors to more stable long-term holders, suggesting a stronger foundation for the future.
He concluded: “While the divergence from risk assets can be disruptive, the fundamentals are stronger than ever. A shift in ownership allocation from a concentrated group of early believers to a broader range of market participants is essential for Bitcoin to mature into a durable financial asset.”
IPO-like processes currently underway
Visser said the IPO analogy suggests this process lasts several months (typically lasting six to 18 months), and while Bitcoin is moving at a faster pace than traditional assets, it remains within this timeline. Once the distribution stage ends, volatility should decrease as ownership becomes more widespread and the influence of early holders and insiders decreases.
“For now, we expect continued declines. Traders hoping for quick gains may be disappointed, but this phase is critical to long-term stability. Once the rally resumes, positive fundamentals will shine, driven by stronger and more diversified ownership.”
In summary, while the Bitcoin market looks volatile and sentiment remains cautious, the underlying strength of its network and growing circulation point to a path towards greater stability and mainstream acceptance in the evolving crypto market.